Today's overall record:
3-2-1, +1.26 units
Overall record:
30-26-1, 54.00%, +8.86 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
3:10 Update:
The Pirates lose. I didn't think they had much of a chance after Karstens laid an egg. He is now on my fade list...not that he was ever a guy I tailed. I bet on the game thinking the pitching outcomes would be opposite of what they were. Oh well, a 2-1 start for the day is definitely acceptable, especially when the 2 wins were dogs. I've added three picks below.
2:10 Update:
Florida came through today with a 6-2 win today on a decent outing from Anibal Sanchez and strong day for the Marlin bullpen. Cody Ross deserves half of my winnings with his 3 for 3, 4 RBI day. My 3rd bet of the day isn't looking likely as the Pirates are down 6-3 in the bottom of the 7th inning. Russ Ortiz is still trash even after throwing better than expected, going 4 2/3's innings and allowing 7 baserunners and 2 earned runs. Jeff Karstens had the outing I expected Ortiz to have, throwing 4 worthless innings before exiting with 5 walks, 4 hits, and 3 earned runs...really he should have given up more runs. I'm crossing my fingers but it's looking less and less likely. I'm thinking there's a couple of picks to come.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shr Martis
PHI ML -123 --- 2.5 units
The Nationals are terrible, going 0-7 to start the season. They've been horrible in almost every aspect and I expect nothing less tonight. I've done well fading them thus far and will continue. I don't trust Blanton but find Martis even worse. The lineups here are not even comparable. This should be a pretty high scoring game which leads to my next pick...
*Phillies are 8-0 in Blantons last 8 starts.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
*Phillies are 5-0 in Blantons last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
*Phillies are 7-0 in Blantons last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
*Phillies are 6-0 in Blantons last 6 starts as a favorite.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shairon Martis
Over 10 +109 --- 2 unit
This should be a high scoring game. The Phillies have one of the best lineups in the game today and are going against a below average starter throwing in front of a below average defense. On the other side, Blanton threw absolutely terrible in his first start. While I don't expect the same sort of outing, I expect him to give up 3 to 4 runs. Overall, I expect an 8-5 final score here.
TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins
Roy Halladay vs. Francisco Liriano
TOR ML -124 --- 2 units
Nice pitching matchup tonight between Halladay and Liriano. Halladay is one of baseball's top 5 starters while Liriano will be in the future. I'm not a huge fan of going for any team playing against the Twins at the Metrodome but I see this coming out in the Blue Jays favor. The Jays are 20-7 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins, 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left handed starter, and 5-0 against the Twins in Halladay's last 5 starts. The Twins on the other hand are 1-5 in Liriano's last 6 starts and 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. I think the line is respectable when looking at the trends and stats of both, enough so to make a 2 unit play.
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Anibal Sanchez vs Kenshin Kawakami
FLA -1.5 RL +192 - 1 unit --- WIN
FLA ML +123 - 1 unit --- WIN
I figure this game is another toss up. Atlanta is at home, which is an obvious advantage, but the Marlins have been playing great. Kawakami hasn't seen Florida, which should be another advantage for the Tribe. Either way, I like the Marlins to battle today and when they win, they win by 2 or more (5 of 7)...especially when guaranteed a 9th at bat. With Sanchez having thrown well in his first outing, I love these odds...especially when Chipper and McCann are on the bench.
HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Russ Ortiz vs Jeff Karstens
PIT -1.5 RL +172 - 1 unit - LOSS
Ortiz is trash. Some will metion his 3.10 career ERA against PIT but he hasn't thrown against PIT since 2007 when he sported a 4.61 ERA against them. The guy is terrible and I fully expect no one to want him this year...it just may take a month or two. Due to that, and the Astros being awful, I will take the Pirates here.
Added note:
So, I was finally able to get money into http://www.matchbook.com/ which provides me with lines that are much more favorable than my current book. In addition, matchbook also gives odds on reverse runlines which I tend to like on occasion. Now that I'm with matchbook, my lines should look a bit more respectable than my previous lines.
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