April 20th picks and updates

10:00 - The Colorado game is mystifying. How Jon Garland can shut a team down baffles me. I know things like this happen during the long season but this doesn't say much about Colorado's offense. The under may cash all series if this is any indication.

9:30 - Its the bottom of the 5th in the Atlanta game. I have the 4.5 under after 5 and there's guys on first and second with one out...total score is 4 currently. Lowe started strong as the umpire had a huge zone. After the 2nd inning, the zone was significantly decreased and since then its been a struggle for Lowe and his control. Jordan Zimmerman looks solid. He's consistently hitting 95 on the gun and has a devastating slider. He appears to be an up and comer in the fantasy world as he should pile on some strikeouts in the coming years. Ryan Zimmerman just grounded into a double play to cash the under....

8:20PM - Nate McClouth hits a 3 run HR off of Logan Kensing. The pitching for the Marlins has been terrible tonight. I don't know if I've ever seen a pitcher throw 100+ pitches and less than 50 strikes like Andrew Miller did tonight. Unbelievable really. I was on this game and the Marlins until they let me down and they're going to tonight. I didn't trust Miller but didn't figure Ohlendorf would have an amazing outing either. 1st bet of the day looks like a wash, hopefully the rest of the night is a plus. I added a .5 unit prop bet of ATL/WAS 27.5 hits, runs, and errors or less due to the weather and the starters.

8:00PM Update - Pittsburgh just took a 4 run lead in their game against Florida. Ohlendorf looks like the same guy that threw in spring training which is a bad thing for the Fish. The game is in the bottom of the 6th so there's plenty of time for the Marlins to come from behind. It looks like the Marlins are going to need to chase Ohlendorf to get to the Bucs suspect bullpen (outside of Capps) but with just 75 pitches and two hits allowed through 6 innings, its not looking good. I'm still holding out hope but it's dim at best.
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Picks and write up's

I was going to bet the BOS -1.5 run line but I didn't get my bet placed in time and missed out on what I thought would be an easy unit gain. Oh well, with well over 2000 baseball games left in the year, I'll make it up somewhere. I'll be posting plays throughout the day today.

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
COL ML +112 --- 2 units

Most of Colorado's trends aren't a positive thing if you're taking the Rockies in this game. However, with Jon Garland throwing, I think many of the trends can be thrown out the door. Garland has been awful to start the year and should continue his lack of dominance tonight against a strong offensive team. Jason Marquis has been throwing well and looks like he did when he had his strong start for the Cubs in 2007. I definitely don't think Marquis will end up with an under 4 ERA by season end, but he can be a streaky pitcher who should be tailed when he's on his game and faded as soon as he blows up. Both team's bullpens are terrible and the Arizona offense has been horrible, scoring just 2 runs total in their last 3 games.

ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units

Derek Lowe is an under-rated ace coming off an uncharacteristic outing against a hot Florida team (though he has traditionally struggled against the Marlins). Look for Lowe to get back into form against the worst team in baseball. Jordan Zimmerman is a solid prospect with what looks to be a bright future. He had a solid 2008 in Double-A and a nice spring. I expect him to have a short but effective outing as the Nationals should have him on a relatively low pitch count (85?). Both bullpens have been awful which makes me a bit nervous but I think Lowe has the potential to throw a complete game tonight by baffling a team that has struggled against him in the past (2.79 ERA, .221 BAA in 51.2 innings). I'm also leaning on the 8.5 under tonight as well here as I expect both starters to throw well and there are some reports that Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann may be sitting tonight.

FLA Marlins @ PITT Pirates
Andrew Miller vs Ross Ohlendorf
FLA ML -111 --- 2 units

Florida has been smoking hot this year. As in previous days, I plan on riding them until they derail. I don't particularly like Andrew Miller for tonight's game but I don't believe in Ohlendorf either. The split stats and trends are not in favor of an Andrew Miller victory but they are almost identical to Ohlendorf's trends . Neither pitcher has thrown against these particular teams in their careers so anything can happen. The 9.5 over is currently a dog and a solid looking play that I'm considering here as well as teams have hit .352 off of him thus far compared to .321 against Miller.

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
10.5 over -108 --- 2 units

I posted about picking Colorado earlier and think this is an easy over. Jon Garland is terrible and has been for awhile. I expect nothing less than 5 runs allowed out of him tonight. Jason Marquis has thrown well but I read a few things about his outings...both were in frigid temperatures with the wind blowing in. If that's the case, an outing in the warm Arizona air may reverse his fortunes some. Games in Arizona this year have gone over 10.5 at a clip of 6-3 which bodes well for tonight. Both bullpens have been terrible which makes this an even easier call. I know the Diamondbacks struggled in their series with the Giants but I really look for their bats to heat back up at home tonight. Crazy prediction: COL wins 9-6

ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
4.5 under in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units

I think Lowe has a great start tonight against the Nats. I think this has a good chance to be a pitching duel as Zimmerman has a solid debut. Both bullpens have been awful, so I'm staying away from the 8.5 under for the game.

ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
27.5 H/R/E -110 --- 1 unit

Goes with the under here....