April 15th picks

NY Yankees @ TB Rays
Andy Pettitte vs. Andy Sonnastine
Yankees -113 ML --- 3 units

Andy Pettite has faired well against the Rays in his career but floundered last year at Tropicana, sporting a 6.55 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 11 innings. While that may be bad, it has nothing on Andy Sonnastine’s 2008 splits against New York, where he posted a 10.61 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a .349 BAA in 9.1 innings. Looking further shows that Sonnastine had a 6.17 ERA during the day compared to 3.80 at night, and with this being a day game, I would say it is definitely relevant to this particular match up. Another big difference here is Pettitte’s first outing compared to Sonnastine’s. Pettitte had a great first outing going 7 innings, giving up 1 run, and picking up the win. Sonnastine threw 4.2 innings, walking 4, giving up 8 hits, and 5 earned runs. This could have the makings of a high scoring game but with new information that Evan Longoria is out for the next two days, I feel like the Yankees are the play here.

HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Mike Hampton vs Ross Ohlendorf
PIT -113 ML --- 2 units

Houston is 1-6 and 0-4 on the road. They’re playing behind an old, yet athletic pitcher in Hampton who has suffered a significant drop in fastball velocity since his heyday. Hampton has always struggled with putting people on base and today should be no different. I like the matchup against Ross Ohlendorf who had an amazing spring and solid first outing to the year. His splits against Houston are terrible, but the guy looks like a completely different pitcher this year compared to the past. With Pittsburgh traditionally being a fast start team, I like for them to pick up another win tonight against what looks to be a terrible Astros squad.

FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Andrew Miller vs. Derek Lowe
ATL -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units

Florida has looked good thus far but Miller is incredibly inconsistent, walks an incredible amount of people, was terrible on the road in '08, and dismal last April. His numbers against ATL look decent at first glace but in his one game at Turner Field, he threw 5 innings, gave up 9 hits and somehow only gave up 1 run. On the other side, Lowe hasn't looked good against the Marlins in the past but with the way he's thrown this year, I think he comes out and throws a great game after the Braves were beat last night. I don't like the juice in this game but have absolutley no faith in Andrew Miller getting much done tonight. I guess we'll see but this is a stronger hunch play than I normally like to make.

SD Padres @ NY Mets
Kevin Correia vs Oliver Perez
SD ML +165 --- 2 units

I make sure I bet against Oliver Perez anytime he is a -150 favorite or above. He has the reputation to completely pitch his team out of the game in the first 2 innings if his control is off...and if his last 2 outings are any indication, he's off (he allowed six runs on four walks in 2/3’s of an inning). I would say I would take any team that comes out +150 or higher against Oliver Perez, even if they were a middle tier triple-A team. There really isn't much to lose here. If the book I use allowed reverse run lines, I would entertain the thought of betting SD -1.5 for a solid +300 or more...but my book doesn't unfortunately.

BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
Mark Hendrickson vs Kris Benson
Over 12 -110 --- 1.5 units

Both offenses are killing it. Both pitchers are terrible. Both team's hitters should smile. My bet should win.

Games I like today but haven't played and probably won't:
CIN ML
CIN/MIL over 9
SF ML
CLE/KC over 9.5
SEA ML