April 21st picks and updates

So far I have a ton of leans looking at the schedule and the odds but I haven't really had time to go into big trends, etc. I'll be going into each of these games throughout the day and will post picks and write-ups as I go.

CHC White Sox @ BAL Orioles
Jose Contreras vs Brad Bergesen
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units

I like Brad Bergesen in his debut tonight. He's thrown well in his triple-A innings this year (11 innings, mid 2 ERA) and had a solid spring. I'm counting on him to have a solid game tonight against a scrub in Jose Contreras. Contreras was terrible on the road last year (5.85 ERA compared to 3.25 at home). He dominated Baltimore last year but that was during his strong start last year. The Orioles offense has been solid this season and I see it continuing tonight. The White Sox are 0-4 in Contreras's last 4 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts on the road.

TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Brandon McCarthy vs Roy Halladay
TEX Rangers ML +199 --- 2 units

This line is too good to pass up. Halladay is a complete stud, yes, but he has been lit up by the Rangers in the past shown by his 5.34 career ERA. He faired well last year but with career numbers like that, I'll take my chances on an under performing team at +199. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games, 15-3 in their last 18 with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 14-3 in their last 17 road games against solid starters. The last two stats show that the Rangers get up against top tier starter which makes this a solid dog pick for tonight. There are definitely some trends going against the Rangers tonight but this line is a bit high, even if the Blue Jays are a top offense with a top tier pitcher. I will be looking at the over here for sure...

ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Kenshin Kawakami vs Sharion Martis
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units

The Nationals have already seen Kawakami and faired decently against him when they were playing awful. It appears the Nats have turned things around and playing with some fire after releasing almost their entire bullpen. The Braves have a few trends going against them tonight; they're 1-6 in their last 7 games, 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter, 0-4 against in their last four against the NL East, and 0-7 in their last 7 games against Washington. Martis didn't fair too well in his first start against Atlanta, but he's shown some solid stuff since then and could potentially shut down a team missing one of their key bats in Brian McCann.

MIN Twins @ BOS Red Sox
Scott Baker vs Tim Wakefield
MIL Twins ML +154 --- 1.5 units

Scott Baker has ace potential and should revert back tonight against the Red Sox and Wakefield. In 10 career innings against the Red Sox, Baker has a .90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP which boes well, especially as a huge under dog. This line is an excellent line for those backing the Twins with Baker coming off a terrible outing and Wakefield coming off an amazing start. The better pitcher of the two is definitely Baker. The trends are definitely in Boston's favor tonight, causing me to just wager 1 unit but this game is still a play due to the incredible line.

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Franklin Morales vs Yusmeiro Petit
COL -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit, +114 ML 1 unit

The Rockies offense looked sad last night but the Diamondbacks are the worst in the league against lefties. I'm tempted to take the under here, but am not a fan of Yusmeiro Petit helping that cause. The Rockies are the under dogs here but I love the match up and will be taking the reverse run line for a unit with the ML for a unit to maximize what I think will be a profitable bet. Morales had a great game in his first outing and as a lefty I see that continuing tonight. Petit
is 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. National League West, 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies have some bad trends as well but the main thing to bet on here is the Diamondbacks and their awful .147 average against left handed pitching. Arizona has already struggled against Morales once, and it should happen again as they've proven that lefties are a huge problem.

DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Armando Galarraga vs Jered Weaver
DET ML +103 --- 1 unit, -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit

Galarraga has looked amazing thus far and the Tigers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts after he's had 5 days of rest. The Angels are decimated with injuries and are going in a tailspin. Weaver has a career 8.78 ERA against Detroit and the Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games while the Tigers have 3 wins in their last 4 games. I see the hot and cold streaks continuing here and Galaragga having a quality start. In their last 5 games, when the Tigers win, they win by 2 or more...and when the Angels lose, they lose by 2 or more. I like this game like I like the Rocky game, so I'm splitting my bets with the reverse run line and the money line.

KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Sidney Ponson vs Aaron Laffey
KC ML +179 --- 2 units

KC getting +179? Why? Aaron Laffey? I think not. Even though Laffey has pretty much dominated the Royals in the past and thrown extremely well at home, it's hard for me to accept he's worth -180 on a 4-9 team. I hate Sidney Ponson but I watched his last outing and while it burns to say it, he looked solid...and it was against the Indians. KC has been hitting much better at night (.266 to .216 during the day) as well as on the road (.263 vs .217 at home) this year but they've struggled against lefties. The Royals have been the better overall team this year. Here are some solid numbers courtesy of covers.com. Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss, 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central and 12-3 in their last 15 road games. The Royals are looking like a solid dog tonight, especially with the Indians record of 2-9 in their last 11 against a right handed starter.

ADDING
STL/NYM 9.5 over -101 --- 2.5 units
There are reports that wind blowing out like crazy at Busch. I live in STL and can assure you the wind is crazy...so I'm pushing the over and hoping that Perez busts.

Leans for the day but not yet played...
PIT/FLA over 5 in 5 inn - Karstens vs Sanchez, I like Sanchez but he is set to give up a couple of runs and Karstens is far from solid
LAD/HOU over 5 in 5 inn - Kershaw was amazing last outing but tends to have some control issues as young pitchers do...and I still say Russ Ortiz is terrible
TOR/TEX over 4.5 in 5 inn - Halladay has been hit rather well against Texas with over a 5 ERA in his career. McCarthy should give up a few runs to a rather hot Jay offense...I may look at the 9 inning over here as well
FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates - I think they get back on track here against PIT with Karstens
KC/CLE under 10