April 8th plays and write ups

-------Updates-------

2:15 - Marlins just win on an overall ugly game. Volstad had a nice game but was a bit more wild than expected. It came down to the Marlins being up 6-3 in the top of the 9th. Matt Lindstrom comes in only to walk the leadoff batter. He then struck out Christian Guzman before Elijah Dukes singled. So with 2 guys on and 1 out, Ryan Zimmerman hits a nice double play ball to Dan Uggla who commences to bobble it resulting in an error and a bases loaded situation with Adam Dunn at the plate. Lindstrom walked Dunn to bring the score to 6-4 followed by a strikeout and a strong line out off the bat of Austin Kearns to finish the game. The Marlins win 6-4 and preserve the run line...whew...


Overall:
10-5, 66.67%, +7.45 units
0-1, 0.00%, -1 unit on parlays

I had a great night last night, ending up going 5-1 on regular plays and up over 5 units. I hope to make tonight just as good. Here are my plays of the day currently:

Milwaukee moneyline -116 --- 1 unit
Gallardo vs. Randy Johnson

This is one of my weaker plays of the day but I really think highly of Gallardo. Johnson can come out and dominate but he struggled last April with a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He had a tough time at night compared to the day last year but that hardly matters as he’s been better during night games throughout his career. Most importantly, we saw the Brewers crush left handers last year at a .269/.458/.806 clip compared to .246/.421/.738 against righties. Yovani Gallardo has thrown substantially better at night compared to the day and had a decent spring. This pick is more or less a hunch pick compared to many of the others.

Florida Marlins -1.5 RL +135 over Washington --- 2 units -- WIN
Chris Volstad vs. Daniel Cabrera

Florida has looked solid in their first two games, putting up 8+ runs both days. Daniel Cabrera is starting for Washington and had a 6+ ERA in spring training with 7BB’s in 12 innings…meaning his control problems continue to plague him. In his one outing against Florida, Cabrera was shelled for 6 ER in 5.2 innings. Volstad looked great last year and decent in spring training. The pitching match up here leans strongly into Florida’s favor and Florida’s offense is much more potent. As much as I like Florida to outplay predictions, this play is as much as a fade on Cabrera as it is a pick for Florida. I’m thinking we see another high scoring game as the Marlins jump on Cabrera. If they are patient early, they could have Cabrera gone by the 4th inning. If they come out swinging at everything, this could be closer than it should be.
More analysis coming.

Toronto Blue Jays ML -132 over Detroit --- 2 units
Jesse Litsch vs. Zach Miner

This should be a nice matchup for the Blue Jays at home. With Jesse Litsch, the Jays have a guy who had a great spring and flashed strong talent last year. In his only start against Detroit, he held them scoreless over 7 innings while allowing only 6 base runners. His home/away splits are meaningful with his ERA at home at 2.77 compared to 4.32 on the road. Zach Miner has a few split stats in his favor such as home/away ERA, day/night performance, and his innings against Toronto, but his spring was brutal as was his beginning to 2008.

Tampa Bay ML +129 over Boston --- 1.5 units
Scott Kazmir vs. Jon Lester

This one was tough. Both pitchers are solid and both looked good in the spring. Lester dominates at Fenway and it should be a tough matchup but Kazmir has competed well against the Red Sox and their stadium. I initially was going to go with Boston here but with Tampa Bay losing the first game closely, I think they come out focused and looking for their first win of the season. It won’t be an easy task but at +129, I’m getting decent odds on a game that I think will come down to a run.

Baltimore ML +151 over New York --- 1.5 units
K.Uehara vs Chin Ming Wang

This will be Uehara’s first MLB outing. He had a solid spring and posted nice numbers in Japan. Guys like this are intriguing as they haven’t been seen by the other team but they aren’t coming in fresh like a rookie. Many of these Japanese pitchers have effective deliveries that are incredibly different than the American starters that teams see day in and day out. Wang is a solid pitcher who had a decent spring but I’m betting the dog based on Uehara, his Japanese past, and his nice spring. With him throwing at home against a hyped team, I like the odds here at +151.

Cleveland ML -117 over Texas --- 2 units
Carmona vs Padilla

I like Carmona...he was an ace in 2007 and regressed in 2008. He's had a great spring and I'm hoping he's back. Padilla, while he finds a way to win, is an average pitcher at best. I'm basing everything on Fausto looking good tonight against a stacked Texas lineup.

Minnesota RL -1.5 +125 over Seattle --- 2 units
Kevin Slowey vs. Carlos Silva

This is an easy one. Kevin Slowey will end up being a top tier starter this year and will start it off tonight against a below average offense. In additon, Minnesota has one of the biggest home field advantages in baseball. Carlos Silva is garbage and has been hit hard by the Twins in the past. I'm banking on a nice outing from Slowey and one of Carlos Silva's normal starts...which would lead to a Twins win by 2 or more.

LA Angels ML -103 over Oakland --- 1 unit
Nick Adenhart vs. Dana Eveland

Adenhart has been great in spring training, as have the Angels. Oakland is getting a lot of attention from the media, saying they're the new challengers in the West. I don't see it and expect the better team to prevail here. Eveland may be tough tonight considering his home split stats but I expect the Angels to battle...hopefully for a underdog win on the road.

Parlay play of the day:
TOR ML, MIN RL, TB/BOS 8.5Under, STL/PIT 8.5 over, CHC ML
1 unit to win 21.92 units