April 17th picks

4:00 update:

Cubs win but don't cover my run line bet. Oh well...as a Cubs fan, I'm really just happy they ended up with the comeback win. Oddly enough, Soriano hits a HR after looking terrible in his first three at bats. Great win for the Cubs, though it should have been a done deal early in the game. Adding a few more plays.

2:55 update:

The Cubs are playing flat, like yesterday. I fully expected them to light up P.J. Walter in his major league debut. They started off nicely with 3 runs in the first two innings but have failed miserably since then. Walter is making Soriano look like a fool, which doesn't surprise me. It seems Soriano has been a Willie McGee clone thus far, looking terrible for an at bat(s) before hitting a long bomb (which I hope will happen in his next at-bat). I'm hoping the Cubs pull it together, but at least the over looks like an easy win. Added a few games below.

FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Ricky Nolasco vs John Lannan
FLA ML -118 --- 1.5 units

Florida has played great baseball in the first 9 games and should continue tonight. I like Ricky Nolasco to control the game as he's 5-1 in his 6 starts against the Nationals and 11-2 when he starts following a Marlin loss. Another interesting stat: the Nationals are 1-12 in John Lannan starts after games in which the opponent scored 5 or more and 2-8 when he pitches against teams with a winning record.

PARLAY
ARI Diamondbacks @ SF Giants
Dan Haren vs. Jonathon Sanchez
ARI ML -143 and the 7.5 over --- 2 units to win 2.06

Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks have dominated the Giants. The Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day, and 8-2 in Dan Haren's last 10 starts when he had a quality start in his last outing. When you compare that to Jonathon Sanchez and his terrible first outing, the Diamondbacks are the pick here. The O/U is set at 7.5, realtively low when a guy like Sanchez is on the hill. I like the ARI ML but the juice is a bit high so I decided to parlay it with the over.

CHW White Sox @ TB Rays
Bartolo Colon vs James Shields
TB -1.5 RL +115 --- 2 units

Here are some stats, write up not needed:

*Rays are 35-2 in their last 37 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 31-2 in their last 33 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
*Rays are 14-1 in Shields' last 15 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.

DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Justin Verlander vs Felix Hernandez
SEA ML -121 --- 2 units
SEA/DET 7.5 Over +113 --- 2 units

I don't trust 2 young starters, especially when one is Justin Verlander. The O/U at 7.5 is a pretty low number considering Detroit has gone over 5 of their last 6 games and Seattle 6 of their last 7 when the O/U is set at 7.0-8.5. Verlander was shelled in his first outing and while both are talented, I don't trust either to completely shut down a team. I see Seattle winning this as well. Verlander hasn't been the same since last year and Seattle has been on fire this year.

STL Cardinals @ CHI Cubs
PJ Walters vs C.Zambrano
CHC -1.5 RL +121 --- 2 units
CHC/STL 9 Over -140 --- 2 units

I just posted a write up for this game but it somehow deleted. Great. Either way, I hate betting on Cubs games as a fan. It never seems to work out. Though, I'm going to make a play today as I think the Cubs take revenge on the Cardinals and their no name minor league starter. Zambrano has thrown well but I expect him to give up a couple of runs to an incredibly hot Cardinal offense. Look for the Cubs to win 7-4 or 7-5 today.

Parlay of the day:
DET/SEA over, MIN ML, ATL ML, CHC/STL over, CHC ML --- .5 to win 11.25 units

Current Leans:
ATL ML - like for a bounce back here, though I'm a Maholm believer...the under may be the play
SD ML - Hamels at such high juice when his velocity is down 5+ MPH? I think not...
FLA ML - Love the team and have been riding them for awhile...I like Nolasco here
KC/TEX 10.5 Over - TEX kills Meche and Harrison is a wild card, both teams can score
DET/SEA 7.5 Over - Not a huge believer that the two young starters who aren't clear aces can keep this game so low
MIN ML - I like the Twins at home, huge advantage over ANA