Saturday, April 18, 2009

April 18th picks

2:15 update:

Gallardo had a hell of a start against the Mets as did his opposite Johan Santana. The game was 0-0 in the 7th until Carlos Villanueva walked the lead off hitter. Alex Cora came in and tried to sacrifice bunt...which he did well but Rickie Weeks mishandled Prince Fielder's throw to first, resulting in guys on 1st and 3rd with no one out instead of a guy on 2nd and 1 out. The Mets ended up bringing the run home on a shot back to the pitcher by Jose Reyes. The Mets are currently maintaining their 1-0 lead...I'm hoping for a cold Brewer offense to heat up a bit in the last two innings.

12:30 update:
Josh Johnson has given up 5 runs in the first inning without getting an out. He's looking more like Antonio Alfonseca than the Josh Johnson I've seen through spring training and the beginning of the season. Obviously there's a ton of game left but a 5 run deficit to start the game (without an out) is tough. Hopefully the Marlins jump all over their ex-teammate whom I've heard they all hate.

STL Cardinals @ CHC Cubs
Kyle Lohse vs Ryan Dempster
CHC ML -129 --- 2 units

I'm once again betting on my team, the Cubs to take down the Cardinals. Lohse had a great outing in his last start but he's definitely a different guy on the road. Dempster is a solid starter and should keep the hot Cardinal offense guessing. Should be a good game and I'm definitely excited to watch my first Cub/Cardinal game of the year as I had to listen to the first two while at work.

MIL Brewers @ NY Mets
Yovani Gallardo vs Johan Santana
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units

The Brewers, while cold with the bats, hit lefties well. Gallardo was roughed up last outing but his stuff is legit and I expect a bounce back here. This is a solid dog pick as Johan was terrible as a huge favorite in 2008.

FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Josh Johnson vs Scott Olsen
FLA -1.5 RL +102 --- 1 unit
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit

Josh Johnson is throwing well and the Marlins hit lefties well...especially a guy who came from the Marlins last year. I'd write more but I want to get this in before the start.

BAL Orioles vs BOS Red Sox
Adam Eaton vs Josh Beckett
9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units

Adam Eaton is terrible and has been for years. The Red Sox bats are starting to come alive and should take Eaton out in the first 3 innings today. Josh Beckett, while throwing well, was much worse at home than on the road in 2008. In addition to his home/road splits, Beckett was lit up by the O's last year (.311 BAA, 5.60 ERA in 17.1 innings).

ANA Angels @ MIN Twins
Darren Oliver vs Kevin Slowey
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units

I'm a believer in Kevin Slowey. He's had a slow start but I think he turns it around against the Angels tonight. Nothing can go right for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (most ridiculous name in sports) as they just lost Vlad Guerrero on top of their pitching injuries and the huge tradgedy of Nick Adenhart.

DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Edwin Jackson vs Eric Bedard
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units


I don't like laying -140 on this game but I think Bedard is back, meaning he's an ace that would normally get a -160 line. Edwin Jackson looks better than he did last year, but he's still a question mark. Seattle has been playing great as of late with their new manager and style of play. If Jackson falters at all and gives up a couple of runs, it should be enough for Bedard to sail to a win.

Parlay of the day:
SEA ML, BOS/BAL 9.5 over, NYY ML, MIN ML, CIN ML, TB ML --- .75 units to win 25.55 units

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