April 22nd picks and updates

Current plays:

Write up's pending:
CIN Reds vs CHC Cubs
Johnny Cueto vs Ted Lilly
CIN -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- .5 units

I hate betting against my Cubs but I love Johnny Cueto's potential and Ted Lilly has a terrible career against the Reds. I hope the Cubs win this but as a person wanting to make money, I'm taking the HUGE reverse run line on the away team here.

TB/SEA over 9 --- 2 units

DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Justin Verlander vs Joe Saunders
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units

People are going with Detroit here pretty big and the reverse line movement isn't something I like but Verlander has been struggling. He looked much better in his last start but I still don't see him being lights out. I can't say I'm a fan of the soft tossing Saunders but with Anaheim pretty much dominating Detroit the last couple of years, I think they pull out a win here.

TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Matt Harrison vs David Purcey
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units

Both starters have struggled this year...both have struggled against the other team...both offenses have put up a substantial amount of runs this season...I see it continuing. This line seems like a trap but I'm taking it as it seems like a solid play tonight.

STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit

The Cardinals hit .368 off of Maine in 2008 and he's been worse this year through spring training and his first two starts. Money is coming in on the Mets but I like my chances for the Cardinals to jump all over him at Busch like they did last year. The reverse run line here is a nice one even if they're playing at home. 2 of their 9 wins have been by 1 run which is about the normal percentage. I hate taking home team run lines but I plan on fading Maine until he rights himself completely. Pineiro was awful against the Mets last year but is a better pitcher at home. This should be a slug fest and that's why I'm taking:

STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit

Every Mets/Cards game at Busch had 11 runs or more and with these two starters, it should stay that way...under ump or not.


FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates
PIT 5 inning ML -103 --- 1.5 units

OAK Athletics @ NY Yankees
Brett Anderson vs CC Sabathia
5 inning under 5 -121 --- 2 units

Anderson has been solid and I expect the same from CC tonight. I went with the 5 inning line because of the Yankees bullpen. Sabathia has the potential to go 7 or 8 tonight but until they get to Rivera, things are very questionable. Sabathia could be throwing well but if his pitch count gets up, I wouldn't be surprised to see him out after 6 which could mean big issues with this game hitting the under. Update: I just heard a report that the wind is shifted out to right field int the new "wind tunnel" that has created a insane amount of home runs...I'm no longer feeling good about this play. Hopefully the wind changes again.

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jorge De La Rosa vs Dan Haren
Under 9.5 -121 --- 2 unit

Haren's games have been stellar thus far...Arizona just hasn't scored when he throws. I love the under here. I took the 9.5 line last night as soon as it posted and it was down to 9 today. That extra .5 run is huge here. I would have played it for 4 units if I would have thought about it more but I expect to play the under in a small parlay as well.

NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
John Maine vs Joel Pineiro
NO PLAY

Pineiro is far from a good pitcher and he was terrible against the Mets in 2008. He's struggled to find it this year in his first two outings and the Mets should take advantage of his lack of control tonight. The Cardinals have quite a few solid trends in their favor, including a few backing Pineiro tonight. With Maine struggling to find his past success, this line actually may favor the Cardinals at home. As of now, this is a current no play.

MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Braden Looper vs Joe Blanton
PHI TT over 5 runs -103 --- 2 units

Philly's bats are starting to come alive and I expect them to stay hot tonight against a rather cold Brewers squad. I ended up getting the team total over 5 for -103...the over for the game is 10 at +103 and Philly is -132 favorite. This line seems a bit fishy, and I like it quite a bit. I would put more than 2 units on the thing but Looper kept the Phillies in check last season.

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Current Leans and comments from earlier leans:

KC ML - I like the line here and Bannister's career against CLE. I hate KC's inability to hit lefties. I'm waiting to see line movement on this one and may make a play.

CWS ML - I like Danks here but Baltimore hit him well last year and with Diaz (large homer) behind the plate, I can't get myself to make a play here.

KC/CLE over - no play here. KC can't hit lefties. Bannister has thrown extremely well against CLE in 30+ career innings. Only thing keeping this play possible is Marvin Hudson behind the plate which isn't enough.

These are the games that stick out that have value when glancing at the game, pitchers, and posted lines. I'll be posting plays with small write up's today on my blog. I may just start a daily thread to discuss my final picks here as well. As I look at games, different plays may be posted.