April 14th picks

FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Chris Volstad vs Javier Vazquez
Marlins +137, 3 units

Volstad is an up and coming pitcher with a heavy sinker. He hasn’t had a ton of big league experience, only 90 innings or so, but in those innings he’s had a 1.95 ERA during road games. He had a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings against the Braves last year but struggled with his control, allowing 8 walks in those innings. If he has the control he’s known for, he should be tough against an Atlanta team that hit 12 points lower (.278 vs .266) at night than during the day. Vazquez is 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA in his career against the Marlins, but hasn’t faced them since 2005. This game should be closer to even money and I love the +137 line in Florida’s favor.

BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units

Simon is a rookie who has struggled in the past while McCarthy has really started putting together some consistency after having so much potential early in his career. The Rangers are 3-1 at home and have been putting up a crazy amount of runs. I see this as a great opportunity to cash in on a hot offense against a below average rookie.

BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX/BAL 11 Over -120 --- 2 units

As a part of the Rangers moneyline bet, this has been a hot bet this season. The Rangers games have gone over 11 runs in 4 of their 7 games and the Orioles have gone over 11 in 5 of 7 games this far. This game should be no different with the Orioles rookie throwing along with McCarthy, who has a tendency to get wild and lose composure. Both offenses are hot, neither pitcher should be able to keep the other team down.

CLE Indians @ KC Royals
Carl Pavano vs Kyle Davies
KC -1.5 RL +135 --- 3 units

Carl Pavano = terrible is all that should be said here. In 1 inning this year against Texas, Pavano gave up 9 earned runs, 6 hits, and walked 3. Is there any reason to believe he won't get hit hard today? I can't find a stat that's in Pavano's favor here as he sports a 10.50 career ERA against Kansas City, had a terrible spring, was worthless in his first start, and is pitching for a team that is currently 1-6. Enough said, bet on the home favorite here...and make it the run line to make them a dog.

NY Yankees @ TB Rays
AJ Burnett vs Matt Garza
TB -124 over NYY --- 1.5 units

Both pitchers here have been throwing very well and it should continue tonight. The reason for the Tampa Bay pick is rather simple. First, they've been playing rather well staying close or winning in all but 1 game thus far leading to a 4-3 record (1-0 at home). The Rays were 57-24 at home last year while the Yankees were 41-40 on the road. In addition, the Rays played great at night, going 77-44 ( Yankees went 55-51). I like Garza and think he's going to become a top tier pitcher as soon as this year. With ARod and Teixiera out of the lineup, I would also bet the under but with Tampa's hot bats, I'm staying away.

STL Cardinals @ ARI Diamondbacks
Chris Carpenter vs. Max Scherzer
STL -137 over ARI --- 3 units

Carpenter has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. In his last outing he took a no hitter into the 7th and is one of hte top pitchers in the league when healthy. With the Diamondbacks struggling at the start, going 2-5 at home with a terrible .225 team batting average, I don't see them figuring out their offense against a guy like Carpenter. I like Max Scherzer this season and the future but in his one outing against the Cardinals last year (which I attended), he had a 1.80 WHIP and .350 BAA (batting average against).