Opening day plays

After opening day: Overall 2009 MLB stats: 6-4, 60%, +2.17 units

Note: Blog edits are for updates only. I post 99% of my plays at forums to prevent any second guess plays. Anyone that follows will notice that all of my plays will be posted before game time. Win or lose, my first season of posted plays will be honest and legit. Good luck to those who tail any of my plays.


For the day: 3-4, 42.9%, - 1.69 units

ANA ML -135 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.11 units

TOR ML -154 - 1 unit - WIN .65 units


Halladay against Detroit at home. The Tigers were the worst offensive team throughout spring training this year and should continue to be stymied against one of the top starters in baseball. Verlander's last spring outing was disgusting...so hopefully that continues today.

SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit - LOSS

Peavy owns the LA Dodgers with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 143.1 total innings. He's solid at home with a 2.77 ERA at home compared 3.80 on the road. San Diego should struggle to win 70 games this year but I like Peavy to dominate this game and lead the Padres to a win here. Kuroda, while solid this spring, isn't a number one type of starter. I hate taking the -1.5 RL on a team that will struggle to score, but if Peavy throws like I think he will, it may just take 2 runs from San Diego to cash this one...and at +170, I like the chances here.

PITT ML +155 - 1 unit - WIN 1.55 units

Update - Game over
Great game here for Pittsburgh. I was torn on what should happen here as I wanted the under to hit as it could lead to 2 larger wins in parlays but overall I can say I'm pleased with a dog win here. It helps that I root against the Cardinals consistently as a huge Cubs fan.

Maholm has done very well against the Cardinals. In the analysis below, I said if the line came out at +135 or higher, I'd make a play...so I really like +155. The under in this game stands at 7.5...and I'm likely to make a play on that as well.


1 unit parlay to win 1.87 units - LOSS
STL/PIT 7.5 under -110
NYY ML -200


NYM -1.5 RL +105 - 2 units - LOSS

I really like the Mets to win by 2 or more here. In their 7 games against the Reds in 2008, the Mets went 4-3. Not 1 of those 7 games were decided by one run and all but 1 of those games totaled 8 runs or more. I don't see the trap here (even as the Reds line has gone down significately in the last few hours) as Santana has been solid throughout the spring and is obviously one of the best starters in baseball. I think Harang's off season weight loss is being blown out of proportion as he struggled through spring with a line eerily similar to his below average 2008 season. I like the Reds this year and think they out perform some expectations but I don't see them taking down the Mets today.

Update:
Game end - Tough break here. The Mets had a ton of chances to score and couldn't get it done. David Wright was thrown out at home on a terrible decision by the 3rd base coach. Overall, 2 runs on 9 hits, 1 error, and 7 walks...so a pretty terrible offensive day when translating base runners to runs. Obviously the I lost the over here too. Unfortunate, but all part of the season.

3:30PM - The over would have a much better chance had Carlos Delgado not just popped up with the bases loaded. He was 2-3 with 2HR in his career against Mike Lincoln and just missed a fastball that split the plate. There isn't much hope for the over but there's still a 3.5 innings left and the Mets are into the Reds mediocre bullpen. Good news is that Luis Castillo scored to go up 2-0 which would cash my RL bet if were to end now.

3PM - The 7.5 over isn't looking good with a 1-0 Mets lead in the bottom of the 5th. Harang should be done and through decent at best. I think the weather is having a big effect on the bats today and I should have taken that into more consideration like I did when taking the 7.5 under in the STL/PIT game.

NYM/CIN 7.5 run over - 1 unit - LOSS

In 7 of their 8 games in 2008, these teams totaled 8 runs or more. The Reds hit Santana well last year and the Mets did the same to Harang. While I don't expect this to be a scoring fest, I expect this game to go over the 7.5 run mark.

More to come...