The holiday known as opening day

I am off work for the day's games...for the 3rd year in a row. With 6 games televised on ESPN, ESPN 2, or Fox Sports Midwest, I have a full day of baseball. I'm going to look at those games first and foremost when looking for plays.

12:10 PM CST
NY Mets @ CIN Reds
J.Santana vs A.Harang
Game is on ESPN

The Reds were significantly more successful against left handers last year, hitting .257 as a team compared to .243 against right handers. Obviously Santana is not your run of the mill left hander, but it should be noted the Reds were very effective against Johan in 2008, actually the most successful team in 2008. The Reds punished Johan to the tune of 16 hits in 10 innings, giving him a 7.20 ERA over his 2 starts. Harang didn't throw an inning against the Mets in 2008 and while he faced them in 2007, I don't think the stats have any strong meaning as Harang hasn't been effective in well over a year. In spring training, Harang has continued his 2008 season trends, compiling a mid-4 ERA allowing over 1 hit per inning pitched. Johan has been effective throughout the spring and all indications show he should continue that in his first official start of the year. The Reds will be hyped up but I think it'll be a losing effort against one of the top pitchers in the game.

A few key numbers from 2008:
*Reds were 3-3 against the Mets
*The Mets won both games Santana started
*Reds 2-3 in season openers in the last 5 years.
*Mets 4-1 in season openers in the last 5 years

Initial lean: New York wins, 6-2

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1:05 PM CST
TB Rays @ BOS Red Sox
James Shields vs Josh Beckett
Game is on ESPN 2

James Shields important numbers and splits:
5.85 ERA, 20ip, 20 hits against Boston in 2008
4.82 ERA on the road compared to 2.59 at home
2 quality starts out of 3 in his 1st start of the year
8.16 ERA in 14.1 innings in spring training
Tampa Bay is 0-3 when Shields has started at Fenway

Josh Beckett's important numbers and splits:
5.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP at home compared to 2.85/1.05 on the road
Dominated TB with a 2.06 ERA with a .91 WHIP
5.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in day games compared to 3.25/1.14 at night
4 solid starts out of his last 5 openers
3.25 ERA over 37 innings in spring training
20IP against TB at home, giving up just 6 ER

Other trends:
Boston's opening games have totaled 8 runs or less in 3 of the last 4 years

With Beckett's strong spring training, I see a clear advantage here. He has always been a big game pitcher, making this an even stronger play as he'll be amped for the home opener. Shields has looked awful all spring and has been even worse against Boston in the past.

Initial lean: Boston over TB, 7-3 prediction

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3:15 PM CST
PIT Pirates @ STL Cardinals
Paul Maholm vs. Adam Wainwright
Game is on Fox Sports Midwest

Adam Wainwright stats and splits:
Was shelled by Pittsburgh in 12 innings (8.25 ERA, 16 hits allowed)
Dominated at home with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Better during the day rather than night (3.03 ERA vs 3.27)
2 ER or less in his last two openers
STL was 0-2 against PIT in Wainwright's starts
Proficient in spring training with a 3.60 ERA in 25 IP

Paul Maholm stats and splits:
Not as successful during the day (4.30 ERA vs 3.42 at night)
Struggles on the road with a 4.13 ERA vs 3.36 at home
Was great against St. Louis in 2008 with a 3.05 ERA in 20.2 IP
While his ERA against STL was stellar, his WHIP shows that he may have been a bit lucky (1.35)
PIT was 2-1 against STL when Maholm started
Has given up 4 or more ER in his last 3 openers
Dominated spring training with a 1.52 ERA and just 2 walks in 23+ IP

Pittsburgh was 17-15 in ST
St. Louis was 19-12

Initial lean: St. Louis currently but this should be a toss up. I see Maholm breaking out into a upper level starter this year and it makes this pick tough. If Pittsburgh comes out at +135 or higher, I'll make a play for Pittsburgh, otherwise this appears to be a no play. Both pitchers have faired very well throughout spring training. The smart play here may be the under rather than a money line.

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6:05 PM CST
CHI Cubs @ HOU Astros
Carlos Zambrano vs. Roy Oswalt
Game is on ESPN

Carlos Zambrano stats and splits:
Much better at night, 3.18 ERA over 5.66 during the day
Solid against Houston, throwing 27.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP
Didn't fair so well at Minute Maid, sported a 5.68 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 6.1 innings
Was shelled at Minute Maid in 2007 as well...
2-1 in 4 starts against Houston in 2008
Rough outings in 3 of his last 5 opening starts
3.20 ERA in 25.1 spring training innings

Roy Oswalt stats and splits:
4.15 ERA in 14 spring training innings (shortened due to WBC)
Worse at home, sporting a 3.73 ERA compared to 3.34 on the road in 2008, but dominated at home in 2007 with a 1.91 ERA compared to 4.77 on the road
3.71 ERA at night compared to 2.66 during the day
Had a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against the Cubs in 2008, going 1-1

Cubs opening games have totaled 22+ runs in 2 of the last 4 years
Astros games have totaled 7 or less runs in the last 4 years
Cubs went 18-18 in spring training
Houston went 12-20

Initial lean: I say Chicago takes this game as they're the overall better team. I've seen Oswalt a couple of times this spring during high intensity innings and he didn't seem to have his usual stuff. I'm leaning toward Chicago here but it seems to be close to a coin flip. Zambrano's history at Minute Maid is scary but you really never know what you'll get with him and his emotions. He has more desire to win than any pitcher I've ever seen, almost to a fault but I could see that being a problem tomorrow. With Minute Maid being the size of a high school girls softball field, an early home run given up by Zambrano could throw him off his game and cause him to implode early. If I make a play here it will most likely be 1 unit at most.


Other plays and analysis to be posted tomorrow.
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4/5 bet results
Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units - WIN
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit - WIN
Total H/R/E 2.5 over -115 ---- 1 unit - WIN

3-0, 100%, +3.86 units