Opening game initial thoughts: ATL @ PHI

April 5th we see the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Atlanta Braves at 7:05 CT in what amounts to Christmas Eve for the die hard baseball fan.

A detailed look at Phillies starter Brett Myers:
Due to Cole Hamels's arm stiffness, the Phillies will trot out Brett Myers in 2009's first official game. Myers has thrown 23 innings in spring training with a 3.52 ERA and a 16/6 K/BB ratio. Myers turned it on in the second half last year in almost every way. He lowered his ERA from 5.84 in the first half to 3.06 in the second. His K/BB ratio went from 2 even to 3.57 making the ERA drop look legitimate. Over the spring, Myers hasn't dominated like he did in the second half but hasn't flopped like he did in the first. His xERA's from last show that his progress looks real. One major split that should have an effect on the betting line would be his home/away split difference. Since 2006, he's consistently been better at Citizen's Bank than on the road. 2008 revealed a major difference as his home ERA/WHIP/BAA was 3.01/1.17/.232 compared to 6.21/1.61/.301 on the road. I don't expect this strong of a split in 2009, but the difference is real and should be something reviewed before both starting him on your fantasy team or betting on him in the future.

Key game stat: In 2 starts totaling 8.2 innings against Atlanta in 2008, Myers allowed 10ER on 19 hits while walking 5, resulting in 2 losses, both at Citizen's Bank.

A detailed look at Derek Lowe:
A new aquisition, Derek Lowe takes over as the Atlanta ace and will start their road opener at Philadelphia. Lowe has pitched relatively well in spring training this year shown by his 3.81 ERA, 26K's, and 2 BB's in 26 total innings. As last year progressed, so did Lowe. Like Myers, he was a different pitcher in the second half, dropping his ERA from 3.88 to 2.53 and allowing less than a runner per inning. With a bit more research however, his first half can be attibuted to some bad luck while his second half was the opposite. With an xERA of 3.38 in the first half and a 2.92 in the second, Lowe was incredibly consistent throughout the season. Again, like Myers, Lowe has a strong apt to dominate at home while being relatively good to average on the road. Considering the similarity between his home/road splits at both Boston and Los Angeles, I see it continuing with Atlanta. If he can maintain his 2008 command, Lowe should come closer to repeating his 2008 rather than reverting back to his already good 2005-2007.

Key game stats: In 20 career innings at Citizen's Bank Park, Lowe has dominated by posting a stellar ERA/WHIP/BAA of 2.25/.95/.216 wuth just 3 walks. In additoin, inhis last 4 years, Lowe is 0-3 in his last 4 opening starts with a 6.95 ERA and 34 hits in 22 innings.

Other team stats:

ATL vs RHP in 2008: .273/.421/.771
ATL away in 2008: .265/.401/.702
ATL at night: .266/.408/.748

PHI vs RHP: .255/.426/.757
PHI home: 262/.447/.788
PHI at night: .257/.445/.775

PHI went 14-4 against the Braves in 2008. 5-4 at Citizen's Bank Park.