May 4th Picks/Leans and updates

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB -1.5 RL -104 --- 2 units

The Rays just had a great series and have been solid at home since the beginning of last year. I think they're figuring things out. I look for Kazmir to throw a solid game after his poor outing against the Twins. The Rays were 8-1 against the O's at home last year...2 of those games were won by 1 run. With Adam Eaton on the mound, I don't expect this to be a close game. If Eaton has a solid game, I still expect a 5-2 score or better. The Rays are hitting .287 against right handers in their last 10 games while the O's are hitting a paltry .237 against lefties...

CIN Reds @ FLA Marlins
Harang @ Johnson
CIN ML +145 --- 1.5 units
CIN RRL +234 --- .5 units

I love getting Harang at this price. He's been inconsistent but when he's on, he can beat any team. With the Marlins playing questionable at best, getting +144 with a team that's 9-4 on the road is a solid dog pick. Josh Johnson is solid, most definitely, and has the ability to shut down a relatively cold Red offense but Harang has the same ability. With the Red's staff throwing well, I like Harang to come out and try and match a few of the team's past starting perfomances. An under here looks solid as well...

SF Giants @ CHC Cubs
Sanchez vs Dempster
SF ML +178 --- 1 unit
SF -1.5 RRL +272 --- .5 units

As a Cubs fan, this hurts but the value here looks solid. Sanchez has been solid this year while Dempster has struggled. The Cubs have looked pretty good in their last couple of games but with their bullpen struggling, and now tired, the Cubs could be in a tough spot if Dempster gets hit early. The Giants have struggled on the road this year, but traditionally, the Cubs don't have a home field advantage at Wrigley (for whatever reason). If Sanchez stays under control, this could be a tough game for the Cubs which makes the +178 line too good to pass up.

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL TT over 4.5 -101 --- 1.5 units

I'm not a Blanton believer. If this line were set at 5, I'm not 100% I'd take it but I love the Cards chances of getting to 5 or more against a struggling starter. In their last 10 games against right handed starters, the Cards are averaging 5.80 run/game...and currently I'd throw Blanton in the bottom half of NL starters. WIth the Cardinals having a day off do to their postponed game, I see them having a good offensive day against a questionable starter like Blanton.

BOS Red Sox @ NY Yankees
Lester vs Hughes
NYY ML -101 --- 2 units

The Yankees have been crushing left handers (.400 BA in their last 10 games, .444 in their last 5) and with Lester being inconsistent this year, I like the match up. Hughes has been dominating triple-A before having a very strong 1st start of the year and should do the same to a Yankees team hitting just .222 against right handers in their last 5 games. The Yankees are playing better ball in the last week while the Red Sox are coming off a tough series at Tampa. New York has done well at home, going 6-3.

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units

I'll say the same as I have in previous fades of Adam Eaton...he's not good. The Rays are solid at home and have been hitting rather well. I think they give Kazmir some run support tonight and jump all over Adam Eaton. If Eaton holds his own, he should still give up 3 runs...and the Orioles bullpen should cover the rest. Either way, I like the Rays at home and think they cover this rather easily tonight.

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL 1st 5 innings ML -136 --- 1.5 units

I don't like the line a significant amount but after reviewing things, I see no reason the Cardinals shouldn't be leading this game after 5 innings. Lohse has been dominant at home and as I said before, I think Blanton is a below average starter. I don't trust the Cardinal bullpen and thus would only play a 5 inning line here as the Phillies are the best in the league after the 7th inning.

Weekend results

Overall results:
99-82-3, 54.70%, +40.03

Weekend's results (I added two pick to the forum before going out of town for the weekend):
7-3 +6.55 units

Parlays:
0-2, -1.5

TOR -1.5 -114 --- 2 units - WIN +1.75
CHC Cubs -1.5 -116 --- 2 units - WIN +1.72
ANA ML +140 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
DET ML -156 --- 1.5 units - LOSS - 1.5
WAS first 5 inn ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
SEA ML -105 --- 1 unit - WIN +.95
CIN/PIT under 8.5 -110 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.36
MIN -1.5 RL +122 - WIN +2.44

TOR ML, CHC ML, WAS ML --- 1 unit to win 2.36 units - LOSS

CHC RL, TOR RL, MIN ML, TB/BOS under 9, COL/SF under 8.5, WAS ML, HOU/ATL over 8 --- .5 units to win 29.50 - LOSS


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April 30th picks/leans

TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units
TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units

I had this going yesterday and will go with it today. The wind is blowing at 20mph which is always a good thing in TX. Braden is throwing and has thrown well, but that should change against the Rangers...a team that is hitting .355 with a .399 OBP against lefties in the last 10 games (averaging 10.43 runs per 9).

FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- 1 unit (I hate their bullpen and am not going through it again)FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit

The Marlins have done well at Wrigley in the past and I really like Chris Volstad. With the Cubs having so many injury issues right now, I'll take the Marlins with the + money and run with it. I hate betting against my team but money is money.

ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit
ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units

I like Scherzer in this game and think the DBacks hit Suppan pretty good. I know the Brewers have won 8 of their last 9 but this pitching matchup looks like one in the DBacks favor for tonight.

TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units

Garza has done well against Boston in the past and the Rays have dominated at home since the beginning of last year. Beckett is coming off an awful start against the Yankees and I'm hoping it continues tonight.

SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 unitsTwo questionable starters today...two teams that have been scoring pretty consistently, though not in massive amounts. I see a high scoring game tonight as the over has cashed 20 out of 28 games between the two teams when playing in LA.

NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units

I hate laying this much but Ortega should give up runs tonight...I want to play ANA at +200 but haven't pulled the trigger based on Ortega and his triple-A numbers and first start of the year.

KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units

Brian Burres sucks. KC is hitting lefties very nicely. KC will hit lefty Burres. Team total cashes.

I'm tempted to go with the Cardinals today but haven't pulled the trigger. Ryan is hurt, Ludwick may not play...tough decisions here. I think Pujols mashes Daniel Cabrera...I just noticed that if I make a play on the Cardinal game, I will have a card that represents every game tonight in one way or another I still may take a small shot on Anaheim for tonight.

April 28th and 29th results

Overall results:
92-79-3, 53.84%, +33.48

Yesterday's record:
6-5, 54.5%, +2.99 units

Parlays and props:
Not good --- but I'm just testing the results here

Baltimore ML -137 --- 3 units - LOSS -3.00
SD/COL 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units - WIN +1.85
FLA Marlins ML +164 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.64
FLA Marlins rev RL +268 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
TEX/OAK 10.5 over -108 --- 3 units - PPD
BOS ML -122 --- 2 units - WIN +1.64
PHI ML -167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
NYM/FLA under 3.5 in first 5 innings -116 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
BOS TT over 5 +104 --- 2 units - WIN +2.08
Cubs ML -112 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
PHI TT over 5.5 -102 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SF TT over 4 -114 --- 1.5 units - WIN - +1.71
SF ML -140 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.07

April 28th
3-3-1, 50%, +.92 units
Props: 1-2, -5.40 units
Parlays: 0-1, -.595 units

ANA ML -112 --- 2 units - WIN +1.79
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units - WIN +1.74
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units - PUSH
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units - WIN +1.92
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00

Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - LOSS -2
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units - LOSS -5
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - WIN +1.60

Parlay - LOSS -.595 units
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10

April 28th picks and results

Tonight's card:

ANA ML -112 --- 2 units
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit

Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units

Parlay
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10

Overall results:
83-71-2, 53.94%, +29.57

Yesterday's results:
4-10 -5.27 units

TB ML +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit -LOSS -1.00
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units - WIN +1.67
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units - WIN +1.54
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
COL ML -109 --- 2 units - WIN +1.84

Really tough night with some tough breaks in the Nationals game, the Cubs under, and the Twins over but overall, the record looks worse than it really was. I lost 6 by betting the ML and RL on the Marlins, Cubs, and Nationals...and that was bound to happen when a person bets on underdogs and mixes it with reverse runlines. With a night like this, going down 5.27 units is actually not bad. Watching these games and looking at the losses piling up, I was afraid to calculate my units as I thought it was going to be much worse. I'll be back tomorrow looking to turn it around...sorry to any of those that may have tailed me tonight.

April 27th picks/leans

Card for tonight...looks a bit large but I mixed 3 different games with the ML and RL.

TB ML +109 --- 2 units
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units
COL ML -109 --- 2 units
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TB ML +109 --- 2 units

I've watched a couple of Baker's starts and I'm fading him until he can correct his horrid start. Teams are hitting home runs off of him like he's a slow pitch softball starter. I may play a reverse run line here as well for a unit.

WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit

Martis isn't a bad starter and I never trust Joe Blanton. The Nationals obviously have some terrible trends going against them tonight but I can't help but take the Nat's as huge underdogs going against a very questionable starter who has already been hit relatively hard by Washington this year. Blanton sported a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .297 BAA in 15 innings against the Nats in 2008. Martis has thrown well against the Phillies this year and in the past. All in all, the numbers show that this line has nice value when going for the Nats and to continue my huge reverse RL wins, I will be splitting my units among the ML and RL.

CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units

Haren and Lilly have been throwing amazing. THe Diamondbacks have really struggled against lefties and have been very quiet when Haren has taken the hill. Lilly and Haren have combined to start 7 games, only one of which has the total ended over 4 runs.

CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units

Lilly has faired extremely well against the Diamondbacks in his career and has started the season on the right foot. The DBacks aren't hitting well against lefties and even worse when Dan Haren starts. With a good team like the Cubs being such underdogs, I can't help but make a play on the better team with solid trends.

NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units

I like this line when Sabathia is throwing...it's been -200 in the past. He hasn't been an ace thus far but I trust him to keep the game close. I don't think Verlander finds his stuff again today...and therefore could be chased by the 5th. I don't trust the Yankee bullpen and will be taking the 5 inning line. I may make a 1 unit RL play here as well.

Leans:
SF/LAD under 8.5 --- solid trends here but need a look at the ump
BAL/TEX over 11 --- Harrison and Guthrie have been bad and both offenses can put up runs in bunches...wanting to look at the ump

Quite a few games I have yet to look at. I'll post plays as I go.