May 4th Picks/Leans and updates

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB -1.5 RL -104 --- 2 units

The Rays just had a great series and have been solid at home since the beginning of last year. I think they're figuring things out. I look for Kazmir to throw a solid game after his poor outing against the Twins. The Rays were 8-1 against the O's at home last year...2 of those games were won by 1 run. With Adam Eaton on the mound, I don't expect this to be a close game. If Eaton has a solid game, I still expect a 5-2 score or better. The Rays are hitting .287 against right handers in their last 10 games while the O's are hitting a paltry .237 against lefties...

CIN Reds @ FLA Marlins
Harang @ Johnson
CIN ML +145 --- 1.5 units
CIN RRL +234 --- .5 units

I love getting Harang at this price. He's been inconsistent but when he's on, he can beat any team. With the Marlins playing questionable at best, getting +144 with a team that's 9-4 on the road is a solid dog pick. Josh Johnson is solid, most definitely, and has the ability to shut down a relatively cold Red offense but Harang has the same ability. With the Red's staff throwing well, I like Harang to come out and try and match a few of the team's past starting perfomances. An under here looks solid as well...

SF Giants @ CHC Cubs
Sanchez vs Dempster
SF ML +178 --- 1 unit
SF -1.5 RRL +272 --- .5 units

As a Cubs fan, this hurts but the value here looks solid. Sanchez has been solid this year while Dempster has struggled. The Cubs have looked pretty good in their last couple of games but with their bullpen struggling, and now tired, the Cubs could be in a tough spot if Dempster gets hit early. The Giants have struggled on the road this year, but traditionally, the Cubs don't have a home field advantage at Wrigley (for whatever reason). If Sanchez stays under control, this could be a tough game for the Cubs which makes the +178 line too good to pass up.

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL TT over 4.5 -101 --- 1.5 units

I'm not a Blanton believer. If this line were set at 5, I'm not 100% I'd take it but I love the Cards chances of getting to 5 or more against a struggling starter. In their last 10 games against right handed starters, the Cards are averaging 5.80 run/game...and currently I'd throw Blanton in the bottom half of NL starters. WIth the Cardinals having a day off do to their postponed game, I see them having a good offensive day against a questionable starter like Blanton.

BOS Red Sox @ NY Yankees
Lester vs Hughes
NYY ML -101 --- 2 units

The Yankees have been crushing left handers (.400 BA in their last 10 games, .444 in their last 5) and with Lester being inconsistent this year, I like the match up. Hughes has been dominating triple-A before having a very strong 1st start of the year and should do the same to a Yankees team hitting just .222 against right handers in their last 5 games. The Yankees are playing better ball in the last week while the Red Sox are coming off a tough series at Tampa. New York has done well at home, going 6-3.

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units

I'll say the same as I have in previous fades of Adam Eaton...he's not good. The Rays are solid at home and have been hitting rather well. I think they give Kazmir some run support tonight and jump all over Adam Eaton. If Eaton holds his own, he should still give up 3 runs...and the Orioles bullpen should cover the rest. Either way, I like the Rays at home and think they cover this rather easily tonight.

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL 1st 5 innings ML -136 --- 1.5 units

I don't like the line a significant amount but after reviewing things, I see no reason the Cardinals shouldn't be leading this game after 5 innings. Lohse has been dominant at home and as I said before, I think Blanton is a below average starter. I don't trust the Cardinal bullpen and thus would only play a 5 inning line here as the Phillies are the best in the league after the 7th inning.