TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units
TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units
I had this going yesterday and will go with it today. The wind is blowing at 20mph which is always a good thing in TX. Braden is throwing and has thrown well, but that should change against the Rangers...a team that is hitting .355 with a .399 OBP against lefties in the last 10 games (averaging 10.43 runs per 9).
FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- 1 unit (I hate their bullpen and am not going through it again)FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit
The Marlins have done well at Wrigley in the past and I really like Chris Volstad. With the Cubs having so many injury issues right now, I'll take the Marlins with the + money and run with it. I hate betting against my team but money is money.
ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit
ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units
I like Scherzer in this game and think the DBacks hit Suppan pretty good. I know the Brewers have won 8 of their last 9 but this pitching matchup looks like one in the DBacks favor for tonight.
TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units
Garza has done well against Boston in the past and the Rays have dominated at home since the beginning of last year. Beckett is coming off an awful start against the Yankees and I'm hoping it continues tonight.
SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 unitsTwo questionable starters today...two teams that have been scoring pretty consistently, though not in massive amounts. I see a high scoring game tonight as the over has cashed 20 out of 28 games between the two teams when playing in LA.
NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units
I hate laying this much but Ortega should give up runs tonight...I want to play ANA at +200 but haven't pulled the trigger based on Ortega and his triple-A numbers and first start of the year.
KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units
Brian Burres sucks. KC is hitting lefties very nicely. KC will hit lefty Burres. Team total cashes.
I'm tempted to go with the Cardinals today but haven't pulled the trigger. Ryan is hurt, Ludwick may not play...tough decisions here. I think Pujols mashes Daniel Cabrera...I just noticed that if I make a play on the Cardinal game, I will have a card that represents every game tonight in one way or another I still may take a small shot on Anaheim for tonight.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
April 28th and 29th results
Overall results:
92-79-3, 53.84%, +33.48
Yesterday's record:
6-5, 54.5%, +2.99 units
Parlays and props:
Not good --- but I'm just testing the results here
Baltimore ML -137 --- 3 units - LOSS -3.00
SD/COL 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units - WIN +1.85
FLA Marlins ML +164 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.64
FLA Marlins rev RL +268 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
TEX/OAK 10.5 over -108 --- 3 units - PPD
BOS ML -122 --- 2 units - WIN +1.64
PHI ML -167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
NYM/FLA under 3.5 in first 5 innings -116 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
BOS TT over 5 +104 --- 2 units - WIN +2.08
Cubs ML -112 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
PHI TT over 5.5 -102 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SF TT over 4 -114 --- 1.5 units - WIN - +1.71
SF ML -140 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.07
April 28th
3-3-1, 50%, +.92 units
Props: 1-2, -5.40 units
Parlays: 0-1, -.595 units
ANA ML -112 --- 2 units - WIN +1.79
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units - WIN +1.74
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units - PUSH
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units - WIN +1.92
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - LOSS -2
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units - LOSS -5
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - WIN +1.60
Parlay - LOSS -.595 units
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10
92-79-3, 53.84%, +33.48
Yesterday's record:
6-5, 54.5%, +2.99 units
Parlays and props:
Not good --- but I'm just testing the results here
Baltimore ML -137 --- 3 units - LOSS -3.00
SD/COL 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units - WIN +1.85
FLA Marlins ML +164 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.64
FLA Marlins rev RL +268 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
TEX/OAK 10.5 over -108 --- 3 units - PPD
BOS ML -122 --- 2 units - WIN +1.64
PHI ML -167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
NYM/FLA under 3.5 in first 5 innings -116 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
BOS TT over 5 +104 --- 2 units - WIN +2.08
Cubs ML -112 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
PHI TT over 5.5 -102 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SF TT over 4 -114 --- 1.5 units - WIN - +1.71
SF ML -140 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.07
April 28th
3-3-1, 50%, +.92 units
Props: 1-2, -5.40 units
Parlays: 0-1, -.595 units
ANA ML -112 --- 2 units - WIN +1.79
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units - WIN +1.74
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units - PUSH
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units - WIN +1.92
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - LOSS -2
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units - LOSS -5
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units - WIN +1.60
Parlay - LOSS -.595 units
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
April 28th picks and results
Tonight's card:
ANA ML -112 --- 2 units
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit
Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units
Parlay
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10
ANA ML -112 --- 2 units
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit
Props:
HOU/CIN under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units
SEA/CWS under 28 R/H/E --- 5 units
LAD/SFG under 26.5 R/H/E --- 2 units
Parlay
CHW/SEA under 8, LAA ML, HOU/CIN under 8, STL ML, PHI ML
.595 units to win 10
Overall results:
83-71-2, 53.94%, +29.57
Yesterday's results:
4-10 -5.27 units
TB ML +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit -LOSS -1.00
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units - WIN +1.67
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units - WIN +1.54
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
COL ML -109 --- 2 units - WIN +1.84
Really tough night with some tough breaks in the Nationals game, the Cubs under, and the Twins over but overall, the record looks worse than it really was. I lost 6 by betting the ML and RL on the Marlins, Cubs, and Nationals...and that was bound to happen when a person bets on underdogs and mixes it with reverse runlines. With a night like this, going down 5.27 units is actually not bad. Watching these games and looking at the losses piling up, I was afraid to calculate my units as I thought it was going to be much worse. I'll be back tomorrow looking to turn it around...sorry to any of those that may have tailed me tonight.
83-71-2, 53.94%, +29.57
Yesterday's results:
4-10 -5.27 units
TB ML +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit -LOSS -1.00
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units - WIN +1.67
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units - WIN +1.54
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
COL ML -109 --- 2 units - WIN +1.84
Really tough night with some tough breaks in the Nationals game, the Cubs under, and the Twins over but overall, the record looks worse than it really was. I lost 6 by betting the ML and RL on the Marlins, Cubs, and Nationals...and that was bound to happen when a person bets on underdogs and mixes it with reverse runlines. With a night like this, going down 5.27 units is actually not bad. Watching these games and looking at the losses piling up, I was afraid to calculate my units as I thought it was going to be much worse. I'll be back tomorrow looking to turn it around...sorry to any of those that may have tailed me tonight.
Monday, April 27, 2009
April 27th picks/leans
Card for tonight...looks a bit large but I mixed 3 different games with the ML and RL.
TB ML +109 --- 2 units
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units
COL ML -109 --- 2 units
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TB ML +109 --- 2 units
I've watched a couple of Baker's starts and I'm fading him until he can correct his horrid start. Teams are hitting home runs off of him like he's a slow pitch softball starter. I may play a reverse run line here as well for a unit.
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
Martis isn't a bad starter and I never trust Joe Blanton. The Nationals obviously have some terrible trends going against them tonight but I can't help but take the Nat's as huge underdogs going against a very questionable starter who has already been hit relatively hard by Washington this year. Blanton sported a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .297 BAA in 15 innings against the Nats in 2008. Martis has thrown well against the Phillies this year and in the past. All in all, the numbers show that this line has nice value when going for the Nats and to continue my huge reverse RL wins, I will be splitting my units among the ML and RL.
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
Haren and Lilly have been throwing amazing. THe Diamondbacks have really struggled against lefties and have been very quiet when Haren has taken the hill. Lilly and Haren have combined to start 7 games, only one of which has the total ended over 4 runs.
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
Lilly has faired extremely well against the Diamondbacks in his career and has started the season on the right foot. The DBacks aren't hitting well against lefties and even worse when Dan Haren starts. With a good team like the Cubs being such underdogs, I can't help but make a play on the better team with solid trends.
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
I like this line when Sabathia is throwing...it's been -200 in the past. He hasn't been an ace thus far but I trust him to keep the game close. I don't think Verlander finds his stuff again today...and therefore could be chased by the 5th. I don't trust the Yankee bullpen and will be taking the 5 inning line. I may make a 1 unit RL play here as well.
Leans:
SF/LAD under 8.5 --- solid trends here but need a look at the ump
BAL/TEX over 11 --- Harrison and Guthrie have been bad and both offenses can put up runs in bunches...wanting to look at the ump
Quite a few games I have yet to look at. I'll post plays as I go.
TB ML +109 --- 2 units
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units
COL ML -109 --- 2 units
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TB ML +109 --- 2 units
I've watched a couple of Baker's starts and I'm fading him until he can correct his horrid start. Teams are hitting home runs off of him like he's a slow pitch softball starter. I may play a reverse run line here as well for a unit.
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
Martis isn't a bad starter and I never trust Joe Blanton. The Nationals obviously have some terrible trends going against them tonight but I can't help but take the Nat's as huge underdogs going against a very questionable starter who has already been hit relatively hard by Washington this year. Blanton sported a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .297 BAA in 15 innings against the Nats in 2008. Martis has thrown well against the Phillies this year and in the past. All in all, the numbers show that this line has nice value when going for the Nats and to continue my huge reverse RL wins, I will be splitting my units among the ML and RL.
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
Haren and Lilly have been throwing amazing. THe Diamondbacks have really struggled against lefties and have been very quiet when Haren has taken the hill. Lilly and Haren have combined to start 7 games, only one of which has the total ended over 4 runs.
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
Lilly has faired extremely well against the Diamondbacks in his career and has started the season on the right foot. The DBacks aren't hitting well against lefties and even worse when Dan Haren starts. With a good team like the Cubs being such underdogs, I can't help but make a play on the better team with solid trends.
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
I like this line when Sabathia is throwing...it's been -200 in the past. He hasn't been an ace thus far but I trust him to keep the game close. I don't think Verlander finds his stuff again today...and therefore could be chased by the 5th. I don't trust the Yankee bullpen and will be taking the 5 inning line. I may make a 1 unit RL play here as well.
Leans:
SF/LAD under 8.5 --- solid trends here but need a look at the ump
BAL/TEX over 11 --- Harrison and Guthrie have been bad and both offenses can put up runs in bunches...wanting to look at the ump
Quite a few games I have yet to look at. I'll post plays as I go.
April 26th results
Sorry about my lack of posts this weekend. I was incredibly busy and didn't have much time to post my plays both here and at sbrforum.com. All of my plays here are posted at SBR before game times to maintain integrity. I edit posts here, as I have no other choice. When I post plays there, I cannot edit posts which gives those that follow me a guarantee that I am honest throughout. What I win/lose is posted before every game and totaled accordingly. If you would like to follow picks at sbrforum as well as here, here is the link: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/ , I post as DFoster.
Overall results:
79-61-2, 56.43%, +34.84
Sunday's results:
7-3, 70%, +6.73
Sunday, April 26th results
ATL/CIN under 9.5 -106 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
CHC ML -116 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.29
MIN ML +131 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
MIN RL +191 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
MIN/CLE under 9 +124 --- 2 units - WIN +2.48
PIT ML +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
PIT RL +320 --- 1 unit - WIN +3.20
WAS RL +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
WAS ML +160 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.60
WAS 1st half ML +144 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.44
Overall results:
79-61-2, 56.43%, +34.84
Sunday's results:
7-3, 70%, +6.73
Sunday, April 26th results
ATL/CIN under 9.5 -106 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
CHC ML -116 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.29
MIN ML +131 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
MIN RL +191 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
MIN/CLE under 9 +124 --- 2 units - WIN +2.48
PIT ML +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
PIT RL +320 --- 1 unit - WIN +3.20
WAS RL +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
WAS ML +160 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.60
WAS 1st half ML +144 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.44
April 25th results
Overall results:
72-58-2, 55.39% +28.11
Saturday's results:
5-6-1, -2.54
Saturday, April 25th results:
WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units - PUSH
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units - WIN +2.67
MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit - WIN +1.20
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units - LOSS
FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit - WIN +.98
BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit - LOSS - 1.00
BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
KC ML -110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit - WIN +.65
72-58-2, 55.39% +28.11
Saturday's results:
5-6-1, -2.54
Saturday, April 25th results:
WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units - PUSH
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units - WIN +2.67
MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit - WIN +1.20
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units - LOSS
FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit - WIN +.98
BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit - LOSS - 1.00
BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
KC ML -110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit - WIN +.65
Friday, April 24, 2009
April 23rd picks and updates
Possible write ups coming depending on how much time I have. I'm going to the horse races tonight and probably won't be making any updates. ..
CHC -1.5 reverse ML +186 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
MIL ML -126 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.59
BOS ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
KC/DET 4.5 under in 5 innings --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +176 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.50
SEA ML -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
SEA RL +139 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.39
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +212 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.12
TOR/CWS under 9 +133 --- 1 unit --- LOSS
TOR ML +119 -- 1 unit --- WIN +1.19
TOR -1.5 reverse RL +185 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.85
SF ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
HOU TT under 4 -105--- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.43
BAL ML -128 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.5 (nice F up Sherrill)
CHC -1.5 reverse ML +186 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
MIL ML -126 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.59
BOS ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
KC/DET 4.5 under in 5 innings --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +176 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.50
SEA ML -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
SEA RL +139 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.39
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +212 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.12
TOR/CWS under 9 +133 --- 1 unit --- LOSS
TOR ML +119 -- 1 unit --- WIN +1.19
TOR -1.5 reverse RL +185 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.85
SF ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
HOU TT under 4 -105--- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.43
BAL ML -128 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.5 (nice F up Sherrill)
April 22nd results
Overall results:
58-46-1, 55.79%, +23.81 units
1-8, 0%, -2.34 units on parlays
Yesterday's Results:
6-6, 50%, +1.14
TOR/TEX over 9 -129 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
TB/SEA 7.5 under -113 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.77
HOU/LAD 8.5 under +108 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.62
DET ML -137 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
DET RL +115 --- 2 units (1 added one more unit at +117, I had 1 unit at +113)- LOSS -2.00
CHW/BAL over 6 after 5 innings +106 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.59
KC ML +104 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
KC/CLE 4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
NYM +134 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit --- WIN +2.44
DET TT over 4.5 -130 --- 5 units --- WIN + 3.85 units (matched on matchbook at last second)
58-46-1, 55.79%, +23.81 units
1-8, 0%, -2.34 units on parlays
Yesterday's Results:
6-6, 50%, +1.14
TOR/TEX over 9 -129 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
TB/SEA 7.5 under -113 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.77
HOU/LAD 8.5 under +108 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.62
DET ML -137 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
DET RL +115 --- 2 units (1 added one more unit at +117, I had 1 unit at +113)- LOSS -2.00
CHW/BAL over 6 after 5 innings +106 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.59
KC ML +104 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
KC/CLE 4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
NYM +134 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit --- WIN +2.44
DET TT over 4.5 -130 --- 5 units --- WIN + 3.85 units (matched on matchbook at last second)
Thursday, April 23, 2009
April 23rd picks and updates
Early games:
CHW/BAL over 6 after 5 innings +106 --- 1.5 units
TOR/TEX over 9 -129 --- 2 units
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Meche vs Reyes
KC ML +104 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00 (Mayhay blew it)
4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Bush vs Hamels
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units --- LOSS
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit --- WIN +2.44
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
Hernandez vs Lohse
NYM +134 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
TB Rays @ SEA Mariners
Shields vs Hernandez
7.5 under -113 --- 2 units
LA Dodgers @ HOU Astrols
Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez
HOU/LAD 8.5 under +108 --- 1.5 units
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Edwin Jackson vs Matt Palmer
DET ML -137 --- 1 unit
DET RL +115 --- 2 unit
Edwin Jackson has been solid this year and could finally be finding the potential he had in his late teens and early 20's. Matt Palmer is rather terrible, so this match up should be a winner. Ananheim has had some serious issues this season and until they turn things around, fading is a good idea. I like the match up enough that I almost played the RL for 2 units.
Small parlay --- I'm testing these for the season and don't necessarily put money on these posts:
NYM/STL 9.5 over/over in MIL/PHI and NYM ML --- 1 unit to win 6.9 units
Initial thoughts on some games:
KC/CLE under 8.5 --- love the play here but Hirschbeck has been an over ump in his most recent (10+) behind the plate jobs. Meche should do well but Reyes is a question mark. I think I'll stay away but would definitely lean to the under. With the CLE bullpen, I'm going to put 1 unit on the 5 inning under as I expect Meche to dominate through 5.
CIN ML --- Zambrano absolutley dominated the Reds last year with an ERA well under 2 in 30IP. Harang has a terrible career against the Cubs and at Wrigley. The Cubs are 4-1 off of a loss this year and 10-2 in Z's last 12 when he throws as a home favorite greater than -150. Harang has looked solid but was hit hard in his one road outing. The line looks good for the Reds but after looking at splits and trends, I don't see the value here.
MIL ML --- Dave Bush was a ton better at home than on the road but was hit well by Philly in 2008. Hamels has obviously struggled in the start of the season and has seen a decrease in his velocity. I don't necessarily like Hamels to put it together today and dominate like he did yesterday. If he does, the Brewers won't fair well, if he doesn't, they should win by 2 or more....so I will be taking the reverse runline.
NYM ML --- Hernandez is not what I consider a top starter but he's done fairly well against the Cardinals in the past, and hasn't been dominated by Pujols. Lohse was crushed by the Mets last year which gives some hope here. The Mets are struggling with the bats but I expect them to turn it around today against a starter that I think the public is over-rating currently.
CHW/BAL over 6 after 5 innings +106 --- 1.5 units
TOR/TEX over 9 -129 --- 2 units
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Meche vs Reyes
KC ML +104 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00 (Mayhay blew it)
4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Bush vs Hamels
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units --- LOSS
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit --- WIN +2.44
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
Hernandez vs Lohse
NYM +134 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
TB Rays @ SEA Mariners
Shields vs Hernandez
7.5 under -113 --- 2 units
LA Dodgers @ HOU Astrols
Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez
HOU/LAD 8.5 under +108 --- 1.5 units
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Edwin Jackson vs Matt Palmer
DET ML -137 --- 1 unit
DET RL +115 --- 2 unit
Edwin Jackson has been solid this year and could finally be finding the potential he had in his late teens and early 20's. Matt Palmer is rather terrible, so this match up should be a winner. Ananheim has had some serious issues this season and until they turn things around, fading is a good idea. I like the match up enough that I almost played the RL for 2 units.
Small parlay --- I'm testing these for the season and don't necessarily put money on these posts:
NYM/STL 9.5 over/over in MIL/PHI and NYM ML --- 1 unit to win 6.9 units
Initial thoughts on some games:
KC/CLE under 8.5 --- love the play here but Hirschbeck has been an over ump in his most recent (10+) behind the plate jobs. Meche should do well but Reyes is a question mark. I think I'll stay away but would definitely lean to the under. With the CLE bullpen, I'm going to put 1 unit on the 5 inning under as I expect Meche to dominate through 5.
CIN ML --- Zambrano absolutley dominated the Reds last year with an ERA well under 2 in 30IP. Harang has a terrible career against the Cubs and at Wrigley. The Cubs are 4-1 off of a loss this year and 10-2 in Z's last 12 when he throws as a home favorite greater than -150. Harang has looked solid but was hit hard in his one road outing. The line looks good for the Reds but after looking at splits and trends, I don't see the value here.
MIL ML --- Dave Bush was a ton better at home than on the road but was hit well by Philly in 2008. Hamels has obviously struggled in the start of the season and has seen a decrease in his velocity. I don't necessarily like Hamels to put it together today and dominate like he did yesterday. If he does, the Brewers won't fair well, if he doesn't, they should win by 2 or more....so I will be taking the reverse runline.
NYM ML --- Hernandez is not what I consider a top starter but he's done fairly well against the Cardinals in the past, and hasn't been dominated by Pujols. Lohse was crushed by the Mets last year which gives some hope here. The Mets are struggling with the bats but I expect them to turn it around today against a starter that I think the public is over-rating currently.
April 22nd results
Overall results:
52-40-1, 56.52%, +22.67 units
1-8, 0%, -2.34 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
6-4, 60%, +4.61
1-1 parlays, 50%, +1.16
PHI TT over 5 runs -103 --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
COL/ARI Under 9.5 -121 --- 2 unit - WIN +1.65
OAK/NYY 5 inning under 5 -121 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
PIT 5 inning ML -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit - WIN +2.30
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TB/SEA over 9 -1.06 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
CIN -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- 1 units WIN +2.42
ARI ML/under parlay 1 unit to win 2.16 --- WIN +2.16
PHI TT/over parlay 1 unit to win 2.13 --- LOSS -1.00
52-40-1, 56.52%, +22.67 units
1-8, 0%, -2.34 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
6-4, 60%, +4.61
1-1 parlays, 50%, +1.16
PHI TT over 5 runs -103 --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
COL/ARI Under 9.5 -121 --- 2 unit - WIN +1.65
OAK/NYY 5 inning under 5 -121 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
PIT 5 inning ML -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit - WIN +2.30
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TB/SEA over 9 -1.06 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
CIN -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- 1 units WIN +2.42
ARI ML/under parlay 1 unit to win 2.16 --- WIN +2.16
PHI TT/over parlay 1 unit to win 2.13 --- LOSS -1.00
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
April 22nd picks and updates
Current plays:
Write up's pending:
CIN Reds vs CHC Cubs
Johnny Cueto vs Ted Lilly
CIN -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- .5 units
I hate betting against my Cubs but I love Johnny Cueto's potential and Ted Lilly has a terrible career against the Reds. I hope the Cubs win this but as a person wanting to make money, I'm taking the HUGE reverse run line on the away team here.
TB/SEA over 9 --- 2 units
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Justin Verlander vs Joe Saunders
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units
People are going with Detroit here pretty big and the reverse line movement isn't something I like but Verlander has been struggling. He looked much better in his last start but I still don't see him being lights out. I can't say I'm a fan of the soft tossing Saunders but with Anaheim pretty much dominating Detroit the last couple of years, I think they pull out a win here.
TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Matt Harrison vs David Purcey
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units
Both starters have struggled this year...both have struggled against the other team...both offenses have put up a substantial amount of runs this season...I see it continuing. This line seems like a trap but I'm taking it as it seems like a solid play tonight.
STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit
The Cardinals hit .368 off of Maine in 2008 and he's been worse this year through spring training and his first two starts. Money is coming in on the Mets but I like my chances for the Cardinals to jump all over him at Busch like they did last year. The reverse run line here is a nice one even if they're playing at home. 2 of their 9 wins have been by 1 run which is about the normal percentage. I hate taking home team run lines but I plan on fading Maine until he rights himself completely. Pineiro was awful against the Mets last year but is a better pitcher at home. This should be a slug fest and that's why I'm taking:
STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit
Every Mets/Cards game at Busch had 11 runs or more and with these two starters, it should stay that way...under ump or not.
FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates
PIT 5 inning ML -103 --- 1.5 units
OAK Athletics @ NY Yankees
Brett Anderson vs CC Sabathia
5 inning under 5 -121 --- 2 units
Anderson has been solid and I expect the same from CC tonight. I went with the 5 inning line because of the Yankees bullpen. Sabathia has the potential to go 7 or 8 tonight but until they get to Rivera, things are very questionable. Sabathia could be throwing well but if his pitch count gets up, I wouldn't be surprised to see him out after 6 which could mean big issues with this game hitting the under. Update: I just heard a report that the wind is shifted out to right field int the new "wind tunnel" that has created a insane amount of home runs...I'm no longer feeling good about this play. Hopefully the wind changes again.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jorge De La Rosa vs Dan Haren
Under 9.5 -121 --- 2 unit
Haren's games have been stellar thus far...Arizona just hasn't scored when he throws. I love the under here. I took the 9.5 line last night as soon as it posted and it was down to 9 today. That extra .5 run is huge here. I would have played it for 4 units if I would have thought about it more but I expect to play the under in a small parlay as well.
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
John Maine vs Joel Pineiro
NO PLAY
Pineiro is far from a good pitcher and he was terrible against the Mets in 2008. He's struggled to find it this year in his first two outings and the Mets should take advantage of his lack of control tonight. The Cardinals have quite a few solid trends in their favor, including a few backing Pineiro tonight. With Maine struggling to find his past success, this line actually may favor the Cardinals at home. As of now, this is a current no play.
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Braden Looper vs Joe Blanton
PHI TT over 5 runs -103 --- 2 units
Philly's bats are starting to come alive and I expect them to stay hot tonight against a rather cold Brewers squad. I ended up getting the team total over 5 for -103...the over for the game is 10 at +103 and Philly is -132 favorite. This line seems a bit fishy, and I like it quite a bit. I would put more than 2 units on the thing but Looper kept the Phillies in check last season.
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Current Leans and comments from earlier leans:
KC ML - I like the line here and Bannister's career against CLE. I hate KC's inability to hit lefties. I'm waiting to see line movement on this one and may make a play.
CWS ML - I like Danks here but Baltimore hit him well last year and with Diaz (large homer) behind the plate, I can't get myself to make a play here.
KC/CLE over - no play here. KC can't hit lefties. Bannister has thrown extremely well against CLE in 30+ career innings. Only thing keeping this play possible is Marvin Hudson behind the plate which isn't enough.
These are the games that stick out that have value when glancing at the game, pitchers, and posted lines. I'll be posting plays with small write up's today on my blog. I may just start a daily thread to discuss my final picks here as well. As I look at games, different plays may be posted.
Write up's pending:
CIN Reds vs CHC Cubs
Johnny Cueto vs Ted Lilly
CIN -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- .5 units
I hate betting against my Cubs but I love Johnny Cueto's potential and Ted Lilly has a terrible career against the Reds. I hope the Cubs win this but as a person wanting to make money, I'm taking the HUGE reverse run line on the away team here.
TB/SEA over 9 --- 2 units
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Justin Verlander vs Joe Saunders
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units
People are going with Detroit here pretty big and the reverse line movement isn't something I like but Verlander has been struggling. He looked much better in his last start but I still don't see him being lights out. I can't say I'm a fan of the soft tossing Saunders but with Anaheim pretty much dominating Detroit the last couple of years, I think they pull out a win here.
TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Matt Harrison vs David Purcey
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units
Both starters have struggled this year...both have struggled against the other team...both offenses have put up a substantial amount of runs this season...I see it continuing. This line seems like a trap but I'm taking it as it seems like a solid play tonight.
STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit
The Cardinals hit .368 off of Maine in 2008 and he's been worse this year through spring training and his first two starts. Money is coming in on the Mets but I like my chances for the Cardinals to jump all over him at Busch like they did last year. The reverse run line here is a nice one even if they're playing at home. 2 of their 9 wins have been by 1 run which is about the normal percentage. I hate taking home team run lines but I plan on fading Maine until he rights himself completely. Pineiro was awful against the Mets last year but is a better pitcher at home. This should be a slug fest and that's why I'm taking:
STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit
Every Mets/Cards game at Busch had 11 runs or more and with these two starters, it should stay that way...under ump or not.
FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates
PIT 5 inning ML -103 --- 1.5 units
OAK Athletics @ NY Yankees
Brett Anderson vs CC Sabathia
5 inning under 5 -121 --- 2 units
Anderson has been solid and I expect the same from CC tonight. I went with the 5 inning line because of the Yankees bullpen. Sabathia has the potential to go 7 or 8 tonight but until they get to Rivera, things are very questionable. Sabathia could be throwing well but if his pitch count gets up, I wouldn't be surprised to see him out after 6 which could mean big issues with this game hitting the under. Update: I just heard a report that the wind is shifted out to right field int the new "wind tunnel" that has created a insane amount of home runs...I'm no longer feeling good about this play. Hopefully the wind changes again.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jorge De La Rosa vs Dan Haren
Under 9.5 -121 --- 2 unit
Haren's games have been stellar thus far...Arizona just hasn't scored when he throws. I love the under here. I took the 9.5 line last night as soon as it posted and it was down to 9 today. That extra .5 run is huge here. I would have played it for 4 units if I would have thought about it more but I expect to play the under in a small parlay as well.
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
John Maine vs Joel Pineiro
NO PLAY
Pineiro is far from a good pitcher and he was terrible against the Mets in 2008. He's struggled to find it this year in his first two outings and the Mets should take advantage of his lack of control tonight. The Cardinals have quite a few solid trends in their favor, including a few backing Pineiro tonight. With Maine struggling to find his past success, this line actually may favor the Cardinals at home. As of now, this is a current no play.
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Braden Looper vs Joe Blanton
PHI TT over 5 runs -103 --- 2 units
Philly's bats are starting to come alive and I expect them to stay hot tonight against a rather cold Brewers squad. I ended up getting the team total over 5 for -103...the over for the game is 10 at +103 and Philly is -132 favorite. This line seems a bit fishy, and I like it quite a bit. I would put more than 2 units on the thing but Looper kept the Phillies in check last season.
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Current Leans and comments from earlier leans:
KC ML - I like the line here and Bannister's career against CLE. I hate KC's inability to hit lefties. I'm waiting to see line movement on this one and may make a play.
CWS ML - I like Danks here but Baltimore hit him well last year and with Diaz (large homer) behind the plate, I can't get myself to make a play here.
KC/CLE over - no play here. KC can't hit lefties. Bannister has thrown extremely well against CLE in 30+ career innings. Only thing keeping this play possible is Marvin Hudson behind the plate which isn't enough.
These are the games that stick out that have value when glancing at the game, pitchers, and posted lines. I'll be posting plays with small write up's today on my blog. I may just start a daily thread to discuss my final picks here as well. As I look at games, different plays may be posted.
April 21st results
Overall record:
46-36, 56.10%, +18.06 units
Yesterday's record:
5-2, 71.43, +8.96
KC ML +179 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
DET Tigers ML +103 ---1 unit, DET -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
COL Rockies ML +114 --- 1 unit, COL -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.83
MIN ML +154 --- 1.5 units --- PPD
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.73
TEX Rangers +199 --- 2 units --- WIN +3.98
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.94
STL/NYM over 9.5 -101 --- 2.5 units --- WIN +2.48
46-36, 56.10%, +18.06 units
Yesterday's record:
5-2, 71.43, +8.96
KC ML +179 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
DET Tigers ML +103 ---1 unit, DET -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
COL Rockies ML +114 --- 1 unit, COL -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.83
MIN ML +154 --- 1.5 units --- PPD
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.73
TEX Rangers +199 --- 2 units --- WIN +3.98
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.94
STL/NYM over 9.5 -101 --- 2.5 units --- WIN +2.48
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
April 21st picks and updates
So far I have a ton of leans looking at the schedule and the odds but I haven't really had time to go into big trends, etc. I'll be going into each of these games throughout the day and will post picks and write-ups as I go.
CHC White Sox @ BAL Orioles
Jose Contreras vs Brad Bergesen
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units
I like Brad Bergesen in his debut tonight. He's thrown well in his triple-A innings this year (11 innings, mid 2 ERA) and had a solid spring. I'm counting on him to have a solid game tonight against a scrub in Jose Contreras. Contreras was terrible on the road last year (5.85 ERA compared to 3.25 at home). He dominated Baltimore last year but that was during his strong start last year. The Orioles offense has been solid this season and I see it continuing tonight. The White Sox are 0-4 in Contreras's last 4 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts on the road.
TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Brandon McCarthy vs Roy Halladay
TEX Rangers ML +199 --- 2 units
This line is too good to pass up. Halladay is a complete stud, yes, but he has been lit up by the Rangers in the past shown by his 5.34 career ERA. He faired well last year but with career numbers like that, I'll take my chances on an under performing team at +199. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games, 15-3 in their last 18 with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 14-3 in their last 17 road games against solid starters. The last two stats show that the Rangers get up against top tier starter which makes this a solid dog pick for tonight. There are definitely some trends going against the Rangers tonight but this line is a bit high, even if the Blue Jays are a top offense with a top tier pitcher. I will be looking at the over here for sure...
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Kenshin Kawakami vs Sharion Martis
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units
The Nationals have already seen Kawakami and faired decently against him when they were playing awful. It appears the Nats have turned things around and playing with some fire after releasing almost their entire bullpen. The Braves have a few trends going against them tonight; they're 1-6 in their last 7 games, 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter, 0-4 against in their last four against the NL East, and 0-7 in their last 7 games against Washington. Martis didn't fair too well in his first start against Atlanta, but he's shown some solid stuff since then and could potentially shut down a team missing one of their key bats in Brian McCann.
MIN Twins @ BOS Red Sox
Scott Baker vs Tim Wakefield
MIL Twins ML +154 --- 1.5 units
Scott Baker has ace potential and should revert back tonight against the Red Sox and Wakefield. In 10 career innings against the Red Sox, Baker has a .90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP which boes well, especially as a huge under dog. This line is an excellent line for those backing the Twins with Baker coming off a terrible outing and Wakefield coming off an amazing start. The better pitcher of the two is definitely Baker. The trends are definitely in Boston's favor tonight, causing me to just wager 1 unit but this game is still a play due to the incredible line.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Franklin Morales vs Yusmeiro Petit
COL -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit, +114 ML 1 unit
The Rockies offense looked sad last night but the Diamondbacks are the worst in the league against lefties. I'm tempted to take the under here, but am not a fan of Yusmeiro Petit helping that cause. The Rockies are the under dogs here but I love the match up and will be taking the reverse run line for a unit with the ML for a unit to maximize what I think will be a profitable bet. Morales had a great game in his first outing and as a lefty I see that continuing tonight. Petit
is 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. National League West, 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies have some bad trends as well but the main thing to bet on here is the Diamondbacks and their awful .147 average against left handed pitching. Arizona has already struggled against Morales once, and it should happen again as they've proven that lefties are a huge problem.
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Armando Galarraga vs Jered Weaver
DET ML +103 --- 1 unit, -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit
Galarraga has looked amazing thus far and the Tigers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts after he's had 5 days of rest. The Angels are decimated with injuries and are going in a tailspin. Weaver has a career 8.78 ERA against Detroit and the Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games while the Tigers have 3 wins in their last 4 games. I see the hot and cold streaks continuing here and Galaragga having a quality start. In their last 5 games, when the Tigers win, they win by 2 or more...and when the Angels lose, they lose by 2 or more. I like this game like I like the Rocky game, so I'm splitting my bets with the reverse run line and the money line.
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Sidney Ponson vs Aaron Laffey
KC ML +179 --- 2 units
KC getting +179? Why? Aaron Laffey? I think not. Even though Laffey has pretty much dominated the Royals in the past and thrown extremely well at home, it's hard for me to accept he's worth -180 on a 4-9 team. I hate Sidney Ponson but I watched his last outing and while it burns to say it, he looked solid...and it was against the Indians. KC has been hitting much better at night (.266 to .216 during the day) as well as on the road (.263 vs .217 at home) this year but they've struggled against lefties. The Royals have been the better overall team this year. Here are some solid numbers courtesy of covers.com. Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss, 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central and 12-3 in their last 15 road games. The Royals are looking like a solid dog tonight, especially with the Indians record of 2-9 in their last 11 against a right handed starter.
ADDING
STL/NYM 9.5 over -101 --- 2.5 units
There are reports that wind blowing out like crazy at Busch. I live in STL and can assure you the wind is crazy...so I'm pushing the over and hoping that Perez busts.
Leans for the day but not yet played...
PIT/FLA over 5 in 5 inn - Karstens vs Sanchez, I like Sanchez but he is set to give up a couple of runs and Karstens is far from solid
LAD/HOU over 5 in 5 inn - Kershaw was amazing last outing but tends to have some control issues as young pitchers do...and I still say Russ Ortiz is terrible
TOR/TEX over 4.5 in 5 inn - Halladay has been hit rather well against Texas with over a 5 ERA in his career. McCarthy should give up a few runs to a rather hot Jay offense...I may look at the 9 inning over here as well
FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates - I think they get back on track here against PIT with Karstens
KC/CLE under 10
CHC White Sox @ BAL Orioles
Jose Contreras vs Brad Bergesen
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units
I like Brad Bergesen in his debut tonight. He's thrown well in his triple-A innings this year (11 innings, mid 2 ERA) and had a solid spring. I'm counting on him to have a solid game tonight against a scrub in Jose Contreras. Contreras was terrible on the road last year (5.85 ERA compared to 3.25 at home). He dominated Baltimore last year but that was during his strong start last year. The Orioles offense has been solid this season and I see it continuing tonight. The White Sox are 0-4 in Contreras's last 4 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts on the road.
TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Brandon McCarthy vs Roy Halladay
TEX Rangers ML +199 --- 2 units
This line is too good to pass up. Halladay is a complete stud, yes, but he has been lit up by the Rangers in the past shown by his 5.34 career ERA. He faired well last year but with career numbers like that, I'll take my chances on an under performing team at +199. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games, 15-3 in their last 18 with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 14-3 in their last 17 road games against solid starters. The last two stats show that the Rangers get up against top tier starter which makes this a solid dog pick for tonight. There are definitely some trends going against the Rangers tonight but this line is a bit high, even if the Blue Jays are a top offense with a top tier pitcher. I will be looking at the over here for sure...
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Kenshin Kawakami vs Sharion Martis
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units
The Nationals have already seen Kawakami and faired decently against him when they were playing awful. It appears the Nats have turned things around and playing with some fire after releasing almost their entire bullpen. The Braves have a few trends going against them tonight; they're 1-6 in their last 7 games, 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter, 0-4 against in their last four against the NL East, and 0-7 in their last 7 games against Washington. Martis didn't fair too well in his first start against Atlanta, but he's shown some solid stuff since then and could potentially shut down a team missing one of their key bats in Brian McCann.
MIN Twins @ BOS Red Sox
Scott Baker vs Tim Wakefield
MIL Twins ML +154 --- 1.5 units
Scott Baker has ace potential and should revert back tonight against the Red Sox and Wakefield. In 10 career innings against the Red Sox, Baker has a .90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP which boes well, especially as a huge under dog. This line is an excellent line for those backing the Twins with Baker coming off a terrible outing and Wakefield coming off an amazing start. The better pitcher of the two is definitely Baker. The trends are definitely in Boston's favor tonight, causing me to just wager 1 unit but this game is still a play due to the incredible line.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Franklin Morales vs Yusmeiro Petit
COL -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit, +114 ML 1 unit
The Rockies offense looked sad last night but the Diamondbacks are the worst in the league against lefties. I'm tempted to take the under here, but am not a fan of Yusmeiro Petit helping that cause. The Rockies are the under dogs here but I love the match up and will be taking the reverse run line for a unit with the ML for a unit to maximize what I think will be a profitable bet. Morales had a great game in his first outing and as a lefty I see that continuing tonight. Petit
is 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. National League West, 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies have some bad trends as well but the main thing to bet on here is the Diamondbacks and their awful .147 average against left handed pitching. Arizona has already struggled against Morales once, and it should happen again as they've proven that lefties are a huge problem.
DET Tigers @ ANA Angels
Armando Galarraga vs Jered Weaver
DET ML +103 --- 1 unit, -1.5 RL +167 --- 1 unit
Galarraga has looked amazing thus far and the Tigers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts after he's had 5 days of rest. The Angels are decimated with injuries and are going in a tailspin. Weaver has a career 8.78 ERA against Detroit and the Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games while the Tigers have 3 wins in their last 4 games. I see the hot and cold streaks continuing here and Galaragga having a quality start. In their last 5 games, when the Tigers win, they win by 2 or more...and when the Angels lose, they lose by 2 or more. I like this game like I like the Rocky game, so I'm splitting my bets with the reverse run line and the money line.
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Sidney Ponson vs Aaron Laffey
KC ML +179 --- 2 units
KC getting +179? Why? Aaron Laffey? I think not. Even though Laffey has pretty much dominated the Royals in the past and thrown extremely well at home, it's hard for me to accept he's worth -180 on a 4-9 team. I hate Sidney Ponson but I watched his last outing and while it burns to say it, he looked solid...and it was against the Indians. KC has been hitting much better at night (.266 to .216 during the day) as well as on the road (.263 vs .217 at home) this year but they've struggled against lefties. The Royals have been the better overall team this year. Here are some solid numbers courtesy of covers.com. Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss, 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central and 12-3 in their last 15 road games. The Royals are looking like a solid dog tonight, especially with the Indians record of 2-9 in their last 11 against a right handed starter.
ADDING
STL/NYM 9.5 over -101 --- 2.5 units
There are reports that wind blowing out like crazy at Busch. I live in STL and can assure you the wind is crazy...so I'm pushing the over and hoping that Perez busts.
Leans for the day but not yet played...
PIT/FLA over 5 in 5 inn - Karstens vs Sanchez, I like Sanchez but he is set to give up a couple of runs and Karstens is far from solid
LAD/HOU over 5 in 5 inn - Kershaw was amazing last outing but tends to have some control issues as young pitchers do...and I still say Russ Ortiz is terrible
TOR/TEX over 4.5 in 5 inn - Halladay has been hit rather well against Texas with over a 5 ERA in his career. McCarthy should give up a few runs to a rather hot Jay offense...I may look at the 9 inning over here as well
FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates - I think they get back on track here against PIT with Karstens
KC/CLE under 10
April 20th results
Overall record:
41-34, 55.00%, +9.10 units
Monday's record:
2-4, -5.24 units
COL ML +112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
FLA ML -112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
COL/ARI 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL/WAS under 4.5 in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.85
ATL/WAS under 27.5 H/R/E -110 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.91
If you read any of the updates, I can assume you knew the night wasn't going well. Monday ended up being my worst day outside of the whim picks I made before my vacation that killed my record and units (0-6 that day). I'm looking to bounce back today.
Monday, April 20, 2009
April 20th picks and updates
10:00 - The Colorado game is mystifying. How Jon Garland can shut a team down baffles me. I know things like this happen during the long season but this doesn't say much about Colorado's offense. The under may cash all series if this is any indication.
9:30 - Its the bottom of the 5th in the Atlanta game. I have the 4.5 under after 5 and there's guys on first and second with one out...total score is 4 currently. Lowe started strong as the umpire had a huge zone. After the 2nd inning, the zone was significantly decreased and since then its been a struggle for Lowe and his control. Jordan Zimmerman looks solid. He's consistently hitting 95 on the gun and has a devastating slider. He appears to be an up and comer in the fantasy world as he should pile on some strikeouts in the coming years. Ryan Zimmerman just grounded into a double play to cash the under....
8:20PM - Nate McClouth hits a 3 run HR off of Logan Kensing. The pitching for the Marlins has been terrible tonight. I don't know if I've ever seen a pitcher throw 100+ pitches and less than 50 strikes like Andrew Miller did tonight. Unbelievable really. I was on this game and the Marlins until they let me down and they're going to tonight. I didn't trust Miller but didn't figure Ohlendorf would have an amazing outing either. 1st bet of the day looks like a wash, hopefully the rest of the night is a plus. I added a .5 unit prop bet of ATL/WAS 27.5 hits, runs, and errors or less due to the weather and the starters.
8:00PM Update - Pittsburgh just took a 4 run lead in their game against Florida. Ohlendorf looks like the same guy that threw in spring training which is a bad thing for the Fish. The game is in the bottom of the 6th so there's plenty of time for the Marlins to come from behind. It looks like the Marlins are going to need to chase Ohlendorf to get to the Bucs suspect bullpen (outside of Capps) but with just 75 pitches and two hits allowed through 6 innings, its not looking good. I'm still holding out hope but it's dim at best.
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Picks and write up's
I was going to bet the BOS -1.5 run line but I didn't get my bet placed in time and missed out on what I thought would be an easy unit gain. Oh well, with well over 2000 baseball games left in the year, I'll make it up somewhere. I'll be posting plays throughout the day today.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
COL ML +112 --- 2 units
Most of Colorado's trends aren't a positive thing if you're taking the Rockies in this game. However, with Jon Garland throwing, I think many of the trends can be thrown out the door. Garland has been awful to start the year and should continue his lack of dominance tonight against a strong offensive team. Jason Marquis has been throwing well and looks like he did when he had his strong start for the Cubs in 2007. I definitely don't think Marquis will end up with an under 4 ERA by season end, but he can be a streaky pitcher who should be tailed when he's on his game and faded as soon as he blows up. Both team's bullpens are terrible and the Arizona offense has been horrible, scoring just 2 runs total in their last 3 games.
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units
Derek Lowe is an under-rated ace coming off an uncharacteristic outing against a hot Florida team (though he has traditionally struggled against the Marlins). Look for Lowe to get back into form against the worst team in baseball. Jordan Zimmerman is a solid prospect with what looks to be a bright future. He had a solid 2008 in Double-A and a nice spring. I expect him to have a short but effective outing as the Nationals should have him on a relatively low pitch count (85?). Both bullpens have been awful which makes me a bit nervous but I think Lowe has the potential to throw a complete game tonight by baffling a team that has struggled against him in the past (2.79 ERA, .221 BAA in 51.2 innings). I'm also leaning on the 8.5 under tonight as well here as I expect both starters to throw well and there are some reports that Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann may be sitting tonight.
FLA Marlins @ PITT Pirates
Andrew Miller vs Ross Ohlendorf
FLA ML -111 --- 2 units
Florida has been smoking hot this year. As in previous days, I plan on riding them until they derail. I don't particularly like Andrew Miller for tonight's game but I don't believe in Ohlendorf either. The split stats and trends are not in favor of an Andrew Miller victory but they are almost identical to Ohlendorf's trends . Neither pitcher has thrown against these particular teams in their careers so anything can happen. The 9.5 over is currently a dog and a solid looking play that I'm considering here as well as teams have hit .352 off of him thus far compared to .321 against Miller.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
10.5 over -108 --- 2 units
I posted about picking Colorado earlier and think this is an easy over. Jon Garland is terrible and has been for awhile. I expect nothing less than 5 runs allowed out of him tonight. Jason Marquis has thrown well but I read a few things about his outings...both were in frigid temperatures with the wind blowing in. If that's the case, an outing in the warm Arizona air may reverse his fortunes some. Games in Arizona this year have gone over 10.5 at a clip of 6-3 which bodes well for tonight. Both bullpens have been terrible which makes this an even easier call. I know the Diamondbacks struggled in their series with the Giants but I really look for their bats to heat back up at home tonight. Crazy prediction: COL wins 9-6
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
4.5 under in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units
I think Lowe has a great start tonight against the Nats. I think this has a good chance to be a pitching duel as Zimmerman has a solid debut. Both bullpens have been awful, so I'm staying away from the 8.5 under for the game.
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
27.5 H/R/E -110 --- 1 unit
Goes with the under here....
9:30 - Its the bottom of the 5th in the Atlanta game. I have the 4.5 under after 5 and there's guys on first and second with one out...total score is 4 currently. Lowe started strong as the umpire had a huge zone. After the 2nd inning, the zone was significantly decreased and since then its been a struggle for Lowe and his control. Jordan Zimmerman looks solid. He's consistently hitting 95 on the gun and has a devastating slider. He appears to be an up and comer in the fantasy world as he should pile on some strikeouts in the coming years. Ryan Zimmerman just grounded into a double play to cash the under....
8:20PM - Nate McClouth hits a 3 run HR off of Logan Kensing. The pitching for the Marlins has been terrible tonight. I don't know if I've ever seen a pitcher throw 100+ pitches and less than 50 strikes like Andrew Miller did tonight. Unbelievable really. I was on this game and the Marlins until they let me down and they're going to tonight. I didn't trust Miller but didn't figure Ohlendorf would have an amazing outing either. 1st bet of the day looks like a wash, hopefully the rest of the night is a plus. I added a .5 unit prop bet of ATL/WAS 27.5 hits, runs, and errors or less due to the weather and the starters.
8:00PM Update - Pittsburgh just took a 4 run lead in their game against Florida. Ohlendorf looks like the same guy that threw in spring training which is a bad thing for the Fish. The game is in the bottom of the 6th so there's plenty of time for the Marlins to come from behind. It looks like the Marlins are going to need to chase Ohlendorf to get to the Bucs suspect bullpen (outside of Capps) but with just 75 pitches and two hits allowed through 6 innings, its not looking good. I'm still holding out hope but it's dim at best.
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Picks and write up's
I was going to bet the BOS -1.5 run line but I didn't get my bet placed in time and missed out on what I thought would be an easy unit gain. Oh well, with well over 2000 baseball games left in the year, I'll make it up somewhere. I'll be posting plays throughout the day today.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
COL ML +112 --- 2 units
Most of Colorado's trends aren't a positive thing if you're taking the Rockies in this game. However, with Jon Garland throwing, I think many of the trends can be thrown out the door. Garland has been awful to start the year and should continue his lack of dominance tonight against a strong offensive team. Jason Marquis has been throwing well and looks like he did when he had his strong start for the Cubs in 2007. I definitely don't think Marquis will end up with an under 4 ERA by season end, but he can be a streaky pitcher who should be tailed when he's on his game and faded as soon as he blows up. Both team's bullpens are terrible and the Arizona offense has been horrible, scoring just 2 runs total in their last 3 games.
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units
Derek Lowe is an under-rated ace coming off an uncharacteristic outing against a hot Florida team (though he has traditionally struggled against the Marlins). Look for Lowe to get back into form against the worst team in baseball. Jordan Zimmerman is a solid prospect with what looks to be a bright future. He had a solid 2008 in Double-A and a nice spring. I expect him to have a short but effective outing as the Nationals should have him on a relatively low pitch count (85?). Both bullpens have been awful which makes me a bit nervous but I think Lowe has the potential to throw a complete game tonight by baffling a team that has struggled against him in the past (2.79 ERA, .221 BAA in 51.2 innings). I'm also leaning on the 8.5 under tonight as well here as I expect both starters to throw well and there are some reports that Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann may be sitting tonight.
FLA Marlins @ PITT Pirates
Andrew Miller vs Ross Ohlendorf
FLA ML -111 --- 2 units
Florida has been smoking hot this year. As in previous days, I plan on riding them until they derail. I don't particularly like Andrew Miller for tonight's game but I don't believe in Ohlendorf either. The split stats and trends are not in favor of an Andrew Miller victory but they are almost identical to Ohlendorf's trends . Neither pitcher has thrown against these particular teams in their careers so anything can happen. The 9.5 over is currently a dog and a solid looking play that I'm considering here as well as teams have hit .352 off of him thus far compared to .321 against Miller.
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Jason Marquis vs Jon Garland
10.5 over -108 --- 2 units
I posted about picking Colorado earlier and think this is an easy over. Jon Garland is terrible and has been for awhile. I expect nothing less than 5 runs allowed out of him tonight. Jason Marquis has thrown well but I read a few things about his outings...both were in frigid temperatures with the wind blowing in. If that's the case, an outing in the warm Arizona air may reverse his fortunes some. Games in Arizona this year have gone over 10.5 at a clip of 6-3 which bodes well for tonight. Both bullpens have been terrible which makes this an even easier call. I know the Diamondbacks struggled in their series with the Giants but I really look for their bats to heat back up at home tonight. Crazy prediction: COL wins 9-6
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
4.5 under in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units
I think Lowe has a great start tonight against the Nats. I think this has a good chance to be a pitching duel as Zimmerman has a solid debut. Both bullpens have been awful, so I'm staying away from the 8.5 under for the game.
ATL Braves @ WAS Nationals
Derek Lowe vs Jordan Zimmerman
27.5 H/R/E -110 --- 1 unit
Goes with the under here....
April 18th results
Saturday's record:
5-2, +2.875 units
Record for last week:
22-13, 63%, +16.22
Overall record:
39-30-1, 57.00%, +14.35 units
0-7, 0%, -3.50 units on parlays
Yesterday I was unable to cap any games or make a post. I was incredibly busy and didn't want to make another mistake like I did the Friday before my KC trip (made picks without my standard research) which killed my record (1-6 that day). I wasn't going to risk that same situation again. Without that one Friday mistake I'd be 38-24, which is obviously better than my current record. I should be back at it today and through the week. Hopefully I keep it going and keep it in the positive for this week as well.
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit - WIN +.625
FLA RL +102 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.02
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
CHC Cubs ML -129 --- 2 units - WIN +1.55
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
BOS/BAL 9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units - WIN +1.96
5-2, +2.875 units
Record for last week:
22-13, 63%, +16.22
Overall record:
39-30-1, 57.00%, +14.35 units
0-7, 0%, -3.50 units on parlays
Yesterday I was unable to cap any games or make a post. I was incredibly busy and didn't want to make another mistake like I did the Friday before my KC trip (made picks without my standard research) which killed my record (1-6 that day). I wasn't going to risk that same situation again. Without that one Friday mistake I'd be 38-24, which is obviously better than my current record. I should be back at it today and through the week. Hopefully I keep it going and keep it in the positive for this week as well.
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit - WIN +.625
FLA RL +102 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.02
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
CHC Cubs ML -129 --- 2 units - WIN +1.55
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
BOS/BAL 9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units - WIN +1.96
Saturday, April 18, 2009
April 18th picks
2:15 update:
Gallardo had a hell of a start against the Mets as did his opposite Johan Santana. The game was 0-0 in the 7th until Carlos Villanueva walked the lead off hitter. Alex Cora came in and tried to sacrifice bunt...which he did well but Rickie Weeks mishandled Prince Fielder's throw to first, resulting in guys on 1st and 3rd with no one out instead of a guy on 2nd and 1 out. The Mets ended up bringing the run home on a shot back to the pitcher by Jose Reyes. The Mets are currently maintaining their 1-0 lead...I'm hoping for a cold Brewer offense to heat up a bit in the last two innings.
12:30 update:
Josh Johnson has given up 5 runs in the first inning without getting an out. He's looking more like Antonio Alfonseca than the Josh Johnson I've seen through spring training and the beginning of the season. Obviously there's a ton of game left but a 5 run deficit to start the game (without an out) is tough. Hopefully the Marlins jump all over their ex-teammate whom I've heard they all hate.
STL Cardinals @ CHC Cubs
Kyle Lohse vs Ryan Dempster
CHC ML -129 --- 2 units
I'm once again betting on my team, the Cubs to take down the Cardinals. Lohse had a great outing in his last start but he's definitely a different guy on the road. Dempster is a solid starter and should keep the hot Cardinal offense guessing. Should be a good game and I'm definitely excited to watch my first Cub/Cardinal game of the year as I had to listen to the first two while at work.
MIL Brewers @ NY Mets
Yovani Gallardo vs Johan Santana
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units
The Brewers, while cold with the bats, hit lefties well. Gallardo was roughed up last outing but his stuff is legit and I expect a bounce back here. This is a solid dog pick as Johan was terrible as a huge favorite in 2008.
FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Josh Johnson vs Scott Olsen
FLA -1.5 RL +102 --- 1 unit
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit
Josh Johnson is throwing well and the Marlins hit lefties well...especially a guy who came from the Marlins last year. I'd write more but I want to get this in before the start.
BAL Orioles vs BOS Red Sox
Adam Eaton vs Josh Beckett
9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units
Adam Eaton is terrible and has been for years. The Red Sox bats are starting to come alive and should take Eaton out in the first 3 innings today. Josh Beckett, while throwing well, was much worse at home than on the road in 2008. In addition to his home/road splits, Beckett was lit up by the O's last year (.311 BAA, 5.60 ERA in 17.1 innings).
ANA Angels @ MIN Twins
Darren Oliver vs Kevin Slowey
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units
I'm a believer in Kevin Slowey. He's had a slow start but I think he turns it around against the Angels tonight. Nothing can go right for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (most ridiculous name in sports) as they just lost Vlad Guerrero on top of their pitching injuries and the huge tradgedy of Nick Adenhart.
DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Edwin Jackson vs Eric Bedard
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units
I don't like laying -140 on this game but I think Bedard is back, meaning he's an ace that would normally get a -160 line. Edwin Jackson looks better than he did last year, but he's still a question mark. Seattle has been playing great as of late with their new manager and style of play. If Jackson falters at all and gives up a couple of runs, it should be enough for Bedard to sail to a win.
Parlay of the day:
SEA ML, BOS/BAL 9.5 over, NYY ML, MIN ML, CIN ML, TB ML --- .75 units to win 25.55 units
Gallardo had a hell of a start against the Mets as did his opposite Johan Santana. The game was 0-0 in the 7th until Carlos Villanueva walked the lead off hitter. Alex Cora came in and tried to sacrifice bunt...which he did well but Rickie Weeks mishandled Prince Fielder's throw to first, resulting in guys on 1st and 3rd with no one out instead of a guy on 2nd and 1 out. The Mets ended up bringing the run home on a shot back to the pitcher by Jose Reyes. The Mets are currently maintaining their 1-0 lead...I'm hoping for a cold Brewer offense to heat up a bit in the last two innings.
12:30 update:
Josh Johnson has given up 5 runs in the first inning without getting an out. He's looking more like Antonio Alfonseca than the Josh Johnson I've seen through spring training and the beginning of the season. Obviously there's a ton of game left but a 5 run deficit to start the game (without an out) is tough. Hopefully the Marlins jump all over their ex-teammate whom I've heard they all hate.
STL Cardinals @ CHC Cubs
Kyle Lohse vs Ryan Dempster
CHC ML -129 --- 2 units
I'm once again betting on my team, the Cubs to take down the Cardinals. Lohse had a great outing in his last start but he's definitely a different guy on the road. Dempster is a solid starter and should keep the hot Cardinal offense guessing. Should be a good game and I'm definitely excited to watch my first Cub/Cardinal game of the year as I had to listen to the first two while at work.
MIL Brewers @ NY Mets
Yovani Gallardo vs Johan Santana
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units
The Brewers, while cold with the bats, hit lefties well. Gallardo was roughed up last outing but his stuff is legit and I expect a bounce back here. This is a solid dog pick as Johan was terrible as a huge favorite in 2008.
FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Josh Johnson vs Scott Olsen
FLA -1.5 RL +102 --- 1 unit
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit
Josh Johnson is throwing well and the Marlins hit lefties well...especially a guy who came from the Marlins last year. I'd write more but I want to get this in before the start.
BAL Orioles vs BOS Red Sox
Adam Eaton vs Josh Beckett
9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units
Adam Eaton is terrible and has been for years. The Red Sox bats are starting to come alive and should take Eaton out in the first 3 innings today. Josh Beckett, while throwing well, was much worse at home than on the road in 2008. In addition to his home/road splits, Beckett was lit up by the O's last year (.311 BAA, 5.60 ERA in 17.1 innings).
ANA Angels @ MIN Twins
Darren Oliver vs Kevin Slowey
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units
I'm a believer in Kevin Slowey. He's had a slow start but I think he turns it around against the Angels tonight. Nothing can go right for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (most ridiculous name in sports) as they just lost Vlad Guerrero on top of their pitching injuries and the huge tradgedy of Nick Adenhart.
DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Edwin Jackson vs Eric Bedard
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units
I don't like laying -140 on this game but I think Bedard is back, meaning he's an ace that would normally get a -160 line. Edwin Jackson looks better than he did last year, but he's still a question mark. Seattle has been playing great as of late with their new manager and style of play. If Jackson falters at all and gives up a couple of runs, it should be enough for Bedard to sail to a win.
Parlay of the day:
SEA ML, BOS/BAL 9.5 over, NYY ML, MIN ML, CIN ML, TB ML --- .75 units to win 25.55 units
April 17th results and records
Today's overall record:
4-2, +2.61 units
Overall record:
34-28-1, 55.00%, +11.47 units
0-7, 0%, -3.50 units on parlays
4-2, +2.61 units
Overall record:
34-28-1, 55.00%, +11.47 units
0-7, 0%, -3.50 units on parlays
Friday, April 17, 2009
April 17th picks
4:00 update:
Cubs win but don't cover my run line bet. Oh well...as a Cubs fan, I'm really just happy they ended up with the comeback win. Oddly enough, Soriano hits a HR after looking terrible in his first three at bats. Great win for the Cubs, though it should have been a done deal early in the game. Adding a few more plays.
2:55 update:
The Cubs are playing flat, like yesterday. I fully expected them to light up P.J. Walter in his major league debut. They started off nicely with 3 runs in the first two innings but have failed miserably since then. Walter is making Soriano look like a fool, which doesn't surprise me. It seems Soriano has been a Willie McGee clone thus far, looking terrible for an at bat(s) before hitting a long bomb (which I hope will happen in his next at-bat). I'm hoping the Cubs pull it together, but at least the over looks like an easy win. Added a few games below.
FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Ricky Nolasco vs John Lannan
FLA ML -118 --- 1.5 units
Florida has played great baseball in the first 9 games and should continue tonight. I like Ricky Nolasco to control the game as he's 5-1 in his 6 starts against the Nationals and 11-2 when he starts following a Marlin loss. Another interesting stat: the Nationals are 1-12 in John Lannan starts after games in which the opponent scored 5 or more and 2-8 when he pitches against teams with a winning record.
PARLAY
ARI Diamondbacks @ SF Giants
Dan Haren vs. Jonathon Sanchez
ARI ML -143 and the 7.5 over --- 2 units to win 2.06
Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks have dominated the Giants. The Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day, and 8-2 in Dan Haren's last 10 starts when he had a quality start in his last outing. When you compare that to Jonathon Sanchez and his terrible first outing, the Diamondbacks are the pick here. The O/U is set at 7.5, realtively low when a guy like Sanchez is on the hill. I like the ARI ML but the juice is a bit high so I decided to parlay it with the over.
CHW White Sox @ TB Rays
Bartolo Colon vs James Shields
TB -1.5 RL +115 --- 2 units
Here are some stats, write up not needed:
*Rays are 35-2 in their last 37 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 31-2 in their last 33 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
*Rays are 14-1 in Shields' last 15 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Justin Verlander vs Felix Hernandez
SEA ML -121 --- 2 units
SEA/DET 7.5 Over +113 --- 2 units
I don't trust 2 young starters, especially when one is Justin Verlander. The O/U at 7.5 is a pretty low number considering Detroit has gone over 5 of their last 6 games and Seattle 6 of their last 7 when the O/U is set at 7.0-8.5. Verlander was shelled in his first outing and while both are talented, I don't trust either to completely shut down a team. I see Seattle winning this as well. Verlander hasn't been the same since last year and Seattle has been on fire this year.
STL Cardinals @ CHI Cubs
PJ Walters vs C.Zambrano
CHC -1.5 RL +121 --- 2 units
CHC/STL 9 Over -140 --- 2 units
I just posted a write up for this game but it somehow deleted. Great. Either way, I hate betting on Cubs games as a fan. It never seems to work out. Though, I'm going to make a play today as I think the Cubs take revenge on the Cardinals and their no name minor league starter. Zambrano has thrown well but I expect him to give up a couple of runs to an incredibly hot Cardinal offense. Look for the Cubs to win 7-4 or 7-5 today.
Parlay of the day:
DET/SEA over, MIN ML, ATL ML, CHC/STL over, CHC ML --- .5 to win 11.25 units
Current Leans:
ATL ML - like for a bounce back here, though I'm a Maholm believer...the under may be the play
SD ML - Hamels at such high juice when his velocity is down 5+ MPH? I think not...
FLA ML - Love the team and have been riding them for awhile...I like Nolasco here
KC/TEX 10.5 Over - TEX kills Meche and Harrison is a wild card, both teams can score
DET/SEA 7.5 Over - Not a huge believer that the two young starters who aren't clear aces can keep this game so low
MIN ML - I like the Twins at home, huge advantage over ANA
Cubs win but don't cover my run line bet. Oh well...as a Cubs fan, I'm really just happy they ended up with the comeback win. Oddly enough, Soriano hits a HR after looking terrible in his first three at bats. Great win for the Cubs, though it should have been a done deal early in the game. Adding a few more plays.
2:55 update:
The Cubs are playing flat, like yesterday. I fully expected them to light up P.J. Walter in his major league debut. They started off nicely with 3 runs in the first two innings but have failed miserably since then. Walter is making Soriano look like a fool, which doesn't surprise me. It seems Soriano has been a Willie McGee clone thus far, looking terrible for an at bat(s) before hitting a long bomb (which I hope will happen in his next at-bat). I'm hoping the Cubs pull it together, but at least the over looks like an easy win. Added a few games below.
FLA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Ricky Nolasco vs John Lannan
FLA ML -118 --- 1.5 units
Florida has played great baseball in the first 9 games and should continue tonight. I like Ricky Nolasco to control the game as he's 5-1 in his 6 starts against the Nationals and 11-2 when he starts following a Marlin loss. Another interesting stat: the Nationals are 1-12 in John Lannan starts after games in which the opponent scored 5 or more and 2-8 when he pitches against teams with a winning record.
PARLAY
ARI Diamondbacks @ SF Giants
Dan Haren vs. Jonathon Sanchez
ARI ML -143 and the 7.5 over --- 2 units to win 2.06
Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks have dominated the Giants. The Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day, and 8-2 in Dan Haren's last 10 starts when he had a quality start in his last outing. When you compare that to Jonathon Sanchez and his terrible first outing, the Diamondbacks are the pick here. The O/U is set at 7.5, realtively low when a guy like Sanchez is on the hill. I like the ARI ML but the juice is a bit high so I decided to parlay it with the over.
CHW White Sox @ TB Rays
Bartolo Colon vs James Shields
TB -1.5 RL +115 --- 2 units
Here are some stats, write up not needed:
*Rays are 35-2 in their last 37 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 31-2 in their last 33 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
*Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
*Rays are 14-1 in Shields' last 15 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
DET Tigers @ SEA Mariners
Justin Verlander vs Felix Hernandez
SEA ML -121 --- 2 units
SEA/DET 7.5 Over +113 --- 2 units
I don't trust 2 young starters, especially when one is Justin Verlander. The O/U at 7.5 is a pretty low number considering Detroit has gone over 5 of their last 6 games and Seattle 6 of their last 7 when the O/U is set at 7.0-8.5. Verlander was shelled in his first outing and while both are talented, I don't trust either to completely shut down a team. I see Seattle winning this as well. Verlander hasn't been the same since last year and Seattle has been on fire this year.
STL Cardinals @ CHI Cubs
PJ Walters vs C.Zambrano
CHC -1.5 RL +121 --- 2 units
CHC/STL 9 Over -140 --- 2 units
I just posted a write up for this game but it somehow deleted. Great. Either way, I hate betting on Cubs games as a fan. It never seems to work out. Though, I'm going to make a play today as I think the Cubs take revenge on the Cardinals and their no name minor league starter. Zambrano has thrown well but I expect him to give up a couple of runs to an incredibly hot Cardinal offense. Look for the Cubs to win 7-4 or 7-5 today.
Parlay of the day:
DET/SEA over, MIN ML, ATL ML, CHC/STL over, CHC ML --- .5 to win 11.25 units
Current Leans:
ATL ML - like for a bounce back here, though I'm a Maholm believer...the under may be the play
SD ML - Hamels at such high juice when his velocity is down 5+ MPH? I think not...
FLA ML - Love the team and have been riding them for awhile...I like Nolasco here
KC/TEX 10.5 Over - TEX kills Meche and Harrison is a wild card, both teams can score
DET/SEA 7.5 Over - Not a huge believer that the two young starters who aren't clear aces can keep this game so low
MIN ML - I like the Twins at home, huge advantage over ANA
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Today's overall record:
3-2-1, +1.26 units
Overall record:
30-26-1, 54.00%, +8.86 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
3:10 Update:
The Pirates lose. I didn't think they had much of a chance after Karstens laid an egg. He is now on my fade list...not that he was ever a guy I tailed. I bet on the game thinking the pitching outcomes would be opposite of what they were. Oh well, a 2-1 start for the day is definitely acceptable, especially when the 2 wins were dogs. I've added three picks below.
2:10 Update:
Florida came through today with a 6-2 win today on a decent outing from Anibal Sanchez and strong day for the Marlin bullpen. Cody Ross deserves half of my winnings with his 3 for 3, 4 RBI day. My 3rd bet of the day isn't looking likely as the Pirates are down 6-3 in the bottom of the 7th inning. Russ Ortiz is still trash even after throwing better than expected, going 4 2/3's innings and allowing 7 baserunners and 2 earned runs. Jeff Karstens had the outing I expected Ortiz to have, throwing 4 worthless innings before exiting with 5 walks, 4 hits, and 3 earned runs...really he should have given up more runs. I'm crossing my fingers but it's looking less and less likely. I'm thinking there's a couple of picks to come.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shr Martis
PHI ML -123 --- 2.5 units
The Nationals are terrible, going 0-7 to start the season. They've been horrible in almost every aspect and I expect nothing less tonight. I've done well fading them thus far and will continue. I don't trust Blanton but find Martis even worse. The lineups here are not even comparable. This should be a pretty high scoring game which leads to my next pick...
*Phillies are 8-0 in Blantons last 8 starts.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
*Phillies are 5-0 in Blantons last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
*Phillies are 7-0 in Blantons last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
*Phillies are 6-0 in Blantons last 6 starts as a favorite.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shairon Martis
Over 10 +109 --- 2 unit
This should be a high scoring game. The Phillies have one of the best lineups in the game today and are going against a below average starter throwing in front of a below average defense. On the other side, Blanton threw absolutely terrible in his first start. While I don't expect the same sort of outing, I expect him to give up 3 to 4 runs. Overall, I expect an 8-5 final score here.
TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins
Roy Halladay vs. Francisco Liriano
TOR ML -124 --- 2 units
Nice pitching matchup tonight between Halladay and Liriano. Halladay is one of baseball's top 5 starters while Liriano will be in the future. I'm not a huge fan of going for any team playing against the Twins at the Metrodome but I see this coming out in the Blue Jays favor. The Jays are 20-7 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins, 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left handed starter, and 5-0 against the Twins in Halladay's last 5 starts. The Twins on the other hand are 1-5 in Liriano's last 6 starts and 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. I think the line is respectable when looking at the trends and stats of both, enough so to make a 2 unit play.
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Anibal Sanchez vs Kenshin Kawakami
FLA -1.5 RL +192 - 1 unit --- WIN
FLA ML +123 - 1 unit --- WIN
I figure this game is another toss up. Atlanta is at home, which is an obvious advantage, but the Marlins have been playing great. Kawakami hasn't seen Florida, which should be another advantage for the Tribe. Either way, I like the Marlins to battle today and when they win, they win by 2 or more (5 of 7)...especially when guaranteed a 9th at bat. With Sanchez having thrown well in his first outing, I love these odds...especially when Chipper and McCann are on the bench.
HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Russ Ortiz vs Jeff Karstens
PIT -1.5 RL +172 - 1 unit - LOSS
Ortiz is trash. Some will metion his 3.10 career ERA against PIT but he hasn't thrown against PIT since 2007 when he sported a 4.61 ERA against them. The guy is terrible and I fully expect no one to want him this year...it just may take a month or two. Due to that, and the Astros being awful, I will take the Pirates here.
Added note:
So, I was finally able to get money into http://www.matchbook.com/ which provides me with lines that are much more favorable than my current book. In addition, matchbook also gives odds on reverse runlines which I tend to like on occasion. Now that I'm with matchbook, my lines should look a bit more respectable than my previous lines.
3-2-1, +1.26 units
Overall record:
30-26-1, 54.00%, +8.86 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
3:10 Update:
The Pirates lose. I didn't think they had much of a chance after Karstens laid an egg. He is now on my fade list...not that he was ever a guy I tailed. I bet on the game thinking the pitching outcomes would be opposite of what they were. Oh well, a 2-1 start for the day is definitely acceptable, especially when the 2 wins were dogs. I've added three picks below.
2:10 Update:
Florida came through today with a 6-2 win today on a decent outing from Anibal Sanchez and strong day for the Marlin bullpen. Cody Ross deserves half of my winnings with his 3 for 3, 4 RBI day. My 3rd bet of the day isn't looking likely as the Pirates are down 6-3 in the bottom of the 7th inning. Russ Ortiz is still trash even after throwing better than expected, going 4 2/3's innings and allowing 7 baserunners and 2 earned runs. Jeff Karstens had the outing I expected Ortiz to have, throwing 4 worthless innings before exiting with 5 walks, 4 hits, and 3 earned runs...really he should have given up more runs. I'm crossing my fingers but it's looking less and less likely. I'm thinking there's a couple of picks to come.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shr Martis
PHI ML -123 --- 2.5 units
The Nationals are terrible, going 0-7 to start the season. They've been horrible in almost every aspect and I expect nothing less tonight. I've done well fading them thus far and will continue. I don't trust Blanton but find Martis even worse. The lineups here are not even comparable. This should be a pretty high scoring game which leads to my next pick...
*Phillies are 8-0 in Blantons last 8 starts.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
*Phillies are 5-0 in Blantons last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
*Phillies are 4-0 in Blantons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
*Phillies are 7-0 in Blantons last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
*Phillies are 6-0 in Blantons last 6 starts as a favorite.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Joe Blanton vs. Shairon Martis
Over 10 +109 --- 2 unit
This should be a high scoring game. The Phillies have one of the best lineups in the game today and are going against a below average starter throwing in front of a below average defense. On the other side, Blanton threw absolutely terrible in his first start. While I don't expect the same sort of outing, I expect him to give up 3 to 4 runs. Overall, I expect an 8-5 final score here.
TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins
Roy Halladay vs. Francisco Liriano
TOR ML -124 --- 2 units
Nice pitching matchup tonight between Halladay and Liriano. Halladay is one of baseball's top 5 starters while Liriano will be in the future. I'm not a huge fan of going for any team playing against the Twins at the Metrodome but I see this coming out in the Blue Jays favor. The Jays are 20-7 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins, 5-1 in their last 6 games against a left handed starter, and 5-0 against the Twins in Halladay's last 5 starts. The Twins on the other hand are 1-5 in Liriano's last 6 starts and 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. I think the line is respectable when looking at the trends and stats of both, enough so to make a 2 unit play.
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Anibal Sanchez vs Kenshin Kawakami
FLA -1.5 RL +192 - 1 unit --- WIN
FLA ML +123 - 1 unit --- WIN
I figure this game is another toss up. Atlanta is at home, which is an obvious advantage, but the Marlins have been playing great. Kawakami hasn't seen Florida, which should be another advantage for the Tribe. Either way, I like the Marlins to battle today and when they win, they win by 2 or more (5 of 7)...especially when guaranteed a 9th at bat. With Sanchez having thrown well in his first outing, I love these odds...especially when Chipper and McCann are on the bench.
HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Russ Ortiz vs Jeff Karstens
PIT -1.5 RL +172 - 1 unit - LOSS
Ortiz is trash. Some will metion his 3.10 career ERA against PIT but he hasn't thrown against PIT since 2007 when he sported a 4.61 ERA against them. The guy is terrible and I fully expect no one to want him this year...it just may take a month or two. Due to that, and the Astros being awful, I will take the Pirates here.
Added note:
So, I was finally able to get money into http://www.matchbook.com/ which provides me with lines that are much more favorable than my current book. In addition, matchbook also gives odds on reverse runlines which I tend to like on occasion. Now that I'm with matchbook, my lines should look a bit more respectable than my previous lines.
April 16th results and comments
Overall results:
27-24, 52.94%, +7.60 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
2-3, 40%, -2.01 units
NYY ML -113 over TB --- 3 units - WIN +2.65
SD ML +165 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX/BAL 12 Over - 110 --- 1.5 units WIN +1.36
ATL -1.5 RL +110 over FLA --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
PIT ML -113 --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
Overall a tough day going 2-3 and losing 2.01 units on the day. I've been on the Florida band wagon since opening day and broke from it last night...not a smart move considering the juice I threw toward the Braves, at home, and on the run line. In retrospect, I didn't think this one through fully before placing my run line bet. With the Braves being at home, they would only have 8 at bats rather than nine to win by 2. Florida has been solid no matter who has been on the mound, they've found a way to win. That fact alone should have been reason enough to stay away, but couple that with the home favorite run line pick, and I know I made a mistake. Oh well, the season is long and the more I learn along the way, the better...hopefully things like this make me a bit more profitable by the end of the year. The other wagers I lost are fine with me, part of the game. I expected to win, as always, but know that's not how this thing rolls. Hopefully today I'll get my 2.01 units back along with more.
27-24, 52.94%, +7.60 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
2-3, 40%, -2.01 units
NYY ML -113 over TB --- 3 units - WIN +2.65
SD ML +165 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX/BAL 12 Over - 110 --- 1.5 units WIN +1.36
ATL -1.5 RL +110 over FLA --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
PIT ML -113 --- 2 units LOSS -2.00
Overall a tough day going 2-3 and losing 2.01 units on the day. I've been on the Florida band wagon since opening day and broke from it last night...not a smart move considering the juice I threw toward the Braves, at home, and on the run line. In retrospect, I didn't think this one through fully before placing my run line bet. With the Braves being at home, they would only have 8 at bats rather than nine to win by 2. Florida has been solid no matter who has been on the mound, they've found a way to win. That fact alone should have been reason enough to stay away, but couple that with the home favorite run line pick, and I know I made a mistake. Oh well, the season is long and the more I learn along the way, the better...hopefully things like this make me a bit more profitable by the end of the year. The other wagers I lost are fine with me, part of the game. I expected to win, as always, but know that's not how this thing rolls. Hopefully today I'll get my 2.01 units back along with more.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
April 15th picks
NY Yankees @ TB Rays
Andy Pettitte vs. Andy Sonnastine
Yankees -113 ML --- 3 units
Andy Pettite has faired well against the Rays in his career but floundered last year at Tropicana, sporting a 6.55 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 11 innings. While that may be bad, it has nothing on Andy Sonnastine’s 2008 splits against New York, where he posted a 10.61 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a .349 BAA in 9.1 innings. Looking further shows that Sonnastine had a 6.17 ERA during the day compared to 3.80 at night, and with this being a day game, I would say it is definitely relevant to this particular match up. Another big difference here is Pettitte’s first outing compared to Sonnastine’s. Pettitte had a great first outing going 7 innings, giving up 1 run, and picking up the win. Sonnastine threw 4.2 innings, walking 4, giving up 8 hits, and 5 earned runs. This could have the makings of a high scoring game but with new information that Evan Longoria is out for the next two days, I feel like the Yankees are the play here.
HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Mike Hampton vs Ross Ohlendorf
PIT -113 ML --- 2 units
Houston is 1-6 and 0-4 on the road. They’re playing behind an old, yet athletic pitcher in Hampton who has suffered a significant drop in fastball velocity since his heyday. Hampton has always struggled with putting people on base and today should be no different. I like the matchup against Ross Ohlendorf who had an amazing spring and solid first outing to the year. His splits against Houston are terrible, but the guy looks like a completely different pitcher this year compared to the past. With Pittsburgh traditionally being a fast start team, I like for them to pick up another win tonight against what looks to be a terrible Astros squad.
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Andrew Miller vs. Derek Lowe
ATL -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units
Florida has looked good thus far but Miller is incredibly inconsistent, walks an incredible amount of people, was terrible on the road in '08, and dismal last April. His numbers against ATL look decent at first glace but in his one game at Turner Field, he threw 5 innings, gave up 9 hits and somehow only gave up 1 run. On the other side, Lowe hasn't looked good against the Marlins in the past but with the way he's thrown this year, I think he comes out and throws a great game after the Braves were beat last night. I don't like the juice in this game but have absolutley no faith in Andrew Miller getting much done tonight. I guess we'll see but this is a stronger hunch play than I normally like to make.
SD Padres @ NY Mets
Kevin Correia vs Oliver Perez
SD ML +165 --- 2 units
I make sure I bet against Oliver Perez anytime he is a -150 favorite or above. He has the reputation to completely pitch his team out of the game in the first 2 innings if his control is off...and if his last 2 outings are any indication, he's off (he allowed six runs on four walks in 2/3’s of an inning). I would say I would take any team that comes out +150 or higher against Oliver Perez, even if they were a middle tier triple-A team. There really isn't much to lose here. If the book I use allowed reverse run lines, I would entertain the thought of betting SD -1.5 for a solid +300 or more...but my book doesn't unfortunately.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
Mark Hendrickson vs Kris Benson
Over 12 -110 --- 1.5 units
Both offenses are killing it. Both pitchers are terrible. Both team's hitters should smile. My bet should win.
Games I like today but haven't played and probably won't:
CIN ML
CIN/MIL over 9
SF ML
CLE/KC over 9.5
SEA ML
Andy Pettitte vs. Andy Sonnastine
Yankees -113 ML --- 3 units
Andy Pettite has faired well against the Rays in his career but floundered last year at Tropicana, sporting a 6.55 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 11 innings. While that may be bad, it has nothing on Andy Sonnastine’s 2008 splits against New York, where he posted a 10.61 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a .349 BAA in 9.1 innings. Looking further shows that Sonnastine had a 6.17 ERA during the day compared to 3.80 at night, and with this being a day game, I would say it is definitely relevant to this particular match up. Another big difference here is Pettitte’s first outing compared to Sonnastine’s. Pettitte had a great first outing going 7 innings, giving up 1 run, and picking up the win. Sonnastine threw 4.2 innings, walking 4, giving up 8 hits, and 5 earned runs. This could have the makings of a high scoring game but with new information that Evan Longoria is out for the next two days, I feel like the Yankees are the play here.
HOU Astros @ PIT Pirates
Mike Hampton vs Ross Ohlendorf
PIT -113 ML --- 2 units
Houston is 1-6 and 0-4 on the road. They’re playing behind an old, yet athletic pitcher in Hampton who has suffered a significant drop in fastball velocity since his heyday. Hampton has always struggled with putting people on base and today should be no different. I like the matchup against Ross Ohlendorf who had an amazing spring and solid first outing to the year. His splits against Houston are terrible, but the guy looks like a completely different pitcher this year compared to the past. With Pittsburgh traditionally being a fast start team, I like for them to pick up another win tonight against what looks to be a terrible Astros squad.
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Andrew Miller vs. Derek Lowe
ATL -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units
Florida has looked good thus far but Miller is incredibly inconsistent, walks an incredible amount of people, was terrible on the road in '08, and dismal last April. His numbers against ATL look decent at first glace but in his one game at Turner Field, he threw 5 innings, gave up 9 hits and somehow only gave up 1 run. On the other side, Lowe hasn't looked good against the Marlins in the past but with the way he's thrown this year, I think he comes out and throws a great game after the Braves were beat last night. I don't like the juice in this game but have absolutley no faith in Andrew Miller getting much done tonight. I guess we'll see but this is a stronger hunch play than I normally like to make.
SD Padres @ NY Mets
Kevin Correia vs Oliver Perez
SD ML +165 --- 2 units
I make sure I bet against Oliver Perez anytime he is a -150 favorite or above. He has the reputation to completely pitch his team out of the game in the first 2 innings if his control is off...and if his last 2 outings are any indication, he's off (he allowed six runs on four walks in 2/3’s of an inning). I would say I would take any team that comes out +150 or higher against Oliver Perez, even if they were a middle tier triple-A team. There really isn't much to lose here. If the book I use allowed reverse run lines, I would entertain the thought of betting SD -1.5 for a solid +300 or more...but my book doesn't unfortunately.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
Mark Hendrickson vs Kris Benson
Over 12 -110 --- 1.5 units
Both offenses are killing it. Both pitchers are terrible. Both team's hitters should smile. My bet should win.
Games I like today but haven't played and probably won't:
CIN ML
CIN/MIL over 9
SF ML
CLE/KC over 9.5
SEA ML
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
April 14th updates and results
Overall results:
25-21, 53.85%, +9.61 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
4-3, +4.51 units
0-1, -.5 on parlay of the day
-------------------------------------------------------------------
So the Marlins pulled out a nice underdog victory last night. Winning on the first game of the night sets things up pretty nicely, especially when it's a 3 unit dog bet. Many of these bets came down to the wire. Texas and Baltimore had a total of 6 runs going into the 8th inning before both offenses blew up to hit my 11 over pick...though everyday Eddie Guardado blew my chance for a Texas runline win by giving up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning late in the game. The Royals game were close until the 8th inning, 6 run explosion by Kansas City, putting them easily on track to hit my run line pick, which conveniently was at +135. Tampa Bay didn't have the game I expected but with a few other plays hitting and this being a 1.5 unit selection, it didn't have a huge effect on my ovreall night. The last game of the night, between Arizona and St. Louis, ended up being a real barn burner. I had 3 units on the Cardinals, which probably would have been an easy hit had Carpenter not come out of the game at the end of the 3rd with an oblique issue. Either way, it ended up going into extra innings with Arizona pulling out the victory. With a Cardinal win, my night would have been excellent but with them losing, it was good...something I'd take every night. Hopefully tonight holds something similar to last night, and adds a few more units to the account.
5:30 - Games are getting started and Florida has jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Braves...I'm hoping they keep it going.
Adding:
MIN Twins -127 --- 1.5 units
Parlay of the day:
MIN ML, TEX ML, TEX/BAL Over, STL ML, KC ML
.5 units to win 7.49 units
25-21, 53.85%, +9.61 units
0-6, 0%, -3.00 units on parlays
Yesterday's results:
4-3, +4.51 units
0-1, -.5 on parlay of the day
-------------------------------------------------------------------
So the Marlins pulled out a nice underdog victory last night. Winning on the first game of the night sets things up pretty nicely, especially when it's a 3 unit dog bet. Many of these bets came down to the wire. Texas and Baltimore had a total of 6 runs going into the 8th inning before both offenses blew up to hit my 11 over pick...though everyday Eddie Guardado blew my chance for a Texas runline win by giving up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning late in the game. The Royals game were close until the 8th inning, 6 run explosion by Kansas City, putting them easily on track to hit my run line pick, which conveniently was at +135. Tampa Bay didn't have the game I expected but with a few other plays hitting and this being a 1.5 unit selection, it didn't have a huge effect on my ovreall night. The last game of the night, between Arizona and St. Louis, ended up being a real barn burner. I had 3 units on the Cardinals, which probably would have been an easy hit had Carpenter not come out of the game at the end of the 3rd with an oblique issue. Either way, it ended up going into extra innings with Arizona pulling out the victory. With a Cardinal win, my night would have been excellent but with them losing, it was good...something I'd take every night. Hopefully tonight holds something similar to last night, and adds a few more units to the account.
5:30 - Games are getting started and Florida has jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Braves...I'm hoping they keep it going.
Adding:
MIN Twins -127 --- 1.5 units
Parlay of the day:
MIN ML, TEX ML, TEX/BAL Over, STL ML, KC ML
.5 units to win 7.49 units
April 14th picks
FLA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Chris Volstad vs Javier Vazquez
Marlins +137, 3 units
Volstad is an up and coming pitcher with a heavy sinker. He hasn’t had a ton of big league experience, only 90 innings or so, but in those innings he’s had a 1.95 ERA during road games. He had a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings against the Braves last year but struggled with his control, allowing 8 walks in those innings. If he has the control he’s known for, he should be tough against an Atlanta team that hit 12 points lower (.278 vs .266) at night than during the day. Vazquez is 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA in his career against the Marlins, but hasn’t faced them since 2005. This game should be closer to even money and I love the +137 line in Florida’s favor.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units
Simon is a rookie who has struggled in the past while McCarthy has really started putting together some consistency after having so much potential early in his career. The Rangers are 3-1 at home and have been putting up a crazy amount of runs. I see this as a great opportunity to cash in on a hot offense against a below average rookie.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX/BAL 11 Over -120 --- 2 units
As a part of the Rangers moneyline bet, this has been a hot bet this season. The Rangers games have gone over 11 runs in 4 of their 7 games and the Orioles have gone over 11 in 5 of 7 games this far. This game should be no different with the Orioles rookie throwing along with McCarthy, who has a tendency to get wild and lose composure. Both offenses are hot, neither pitcher should be able to keep the other team down.
CLE Indians @ KC Royals
Carl Pavano vs Kyle Davies
KC -1.5 RL +135 --- 3 units
Carl Pavano = terrible is all that should be said here. In 1 inning this year against Texas, Pavano gave up 9 earned runs, 6 hits, and walked 3. Is there any reason to believe he won't get hit hard today? I can't find a stat that's in Pavano's favor here as he sports a 10.50 career ERA against Kansas City, had a terrible spring, was worthless in his first start, and is pitching for a team that is currently 1-6. Enough said, bet on the home favorite here...and make it the run line to make them a dog.
NY Yankees @ TB Rays
AJ Burnett vs Matt Garza
TB -124 over NYY --- 1.5 units
Both pitchers here have been throwing very well and it should continue tonight. The reason for the Tampa Bay pick is rather simple. First, they've been playing rather well staying close or winning in all but 1 game thus far leading to a 4-3 record (1-0 at home). The Rays were 57-24 at home last year while the Yankees were 41-40 on the road. In addition, the Rays played great at night, going 77-44 ( Yankees went 55-51). I like Garza and think he's going to become a top tier pitcher as soon as this year. With ARod and Teixiera out of the lineup, I would also bet the under but with Tampa's hot bats, I'm staying away.
STL Cardinals @ ARI Diamondbacks
Chris Carpenter vs. Max Scherzer
STL -137 over ARI --- 3 units
Carpenter has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. In his last outing he took a no hitter into the 7th and is one of hte top pitchers in the league when healthy. With the Diamondbacks struggling at the start, going 2-5 at home with a terrible .225 team batting average, I don't see them figuring out their offense against a guy like Carpenter. I like Max Scherzer this season and the future but in his one outing against the Cardinals last year (which I attended), he had a 1.80 WHIP and .350 BAA (batting average against).
Chris Volstad vs Javier Vazquez
Marlins +137, 3 units
Volstad is an up and coming pitcher with a heavy sinker. He hasn’t had a ton of big league experience, only 90 innings or so, but in those innings he’s had a 1.95 ERA during road games. He had a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings against the Braves last year but struggled with his control, allowing 8 walks in those innings. If he has the control he’s known for, he should be tough against an Atlanta team that hit 12 points lower (.278 vs .266) at night than during the day. Vazquez is 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA in his career against the Marlins, but hasn’t faced them since 2005. This game should be closer to even money and I love the +137 line in Florida’s favor.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX -1.5 RL +120 --- 2 units
Simon is a rookie who has struggled in the past while McCarthy has really started putting together some consistency after having so much potential early in his career. The Rangers are 3-1 at home and have been putting up a crazy amount of runs. I see this as a great opportunity to cash in on a hot offense against a below average rookie.
BAL Orioles @ TEX Rangers
A.Simon vs Brandon McCarthy
TEX/BAL 11 Over -120 --- 2 units
As a part of the Rangers moneyline bet, this has been a hot bet this season. The Rangers games have gone over 11 runs in 4 of their 7 games and the Orioles have gone over 11 in 5 of 7 games this far. This game should be no different with the Orioles rookie throwing along with McCarthy, who has a tendency to get wild and lose composure. Both offenses are hot, neither pitcher should be able to keep the other team down.
CLE Indians @ KC Royals
Carl Pavano vs Kyle Davies
KC -1.5 RL +135 --- 3 units
Carl Pavano = terrible is all that should be said here. In 1 inning this year against Texas, Pavano gave up 9 earned runs, 6 hits, and walked 3. Is there any reason to believe he won't get hit hard today? I can't find a stat that's in Pavano's favor here as he sports a 10.50 career ERA against Kansas City, had a terrible spring, was worthless in his first start, and is pitching for a team that is currently 1-6. Enough said, bet on the home favorite here...and make it the run line to make them a dog.
NY Yankees @ TB Rays
AJ Burnett vs Matt Garza
TB -124 over NYY --- 1.5 units
Both pitchers here have been throwing very well and it should continue tonight. The reason for the Tampa Bay pick is rather simple. First, they've been playing rather well staying close or winning in all but 1 game thus far leading to a 4-3 record (1-0 at home). The Rays were 57-24 at home last year while the Yankees were 41-40 on the road. In addition, the Rays played great at night, going 77-44 ( Yankees went 55-51). I like Garza and think he's going to become a top tier pitcher as soon as this year. With ARod and Teixiera out of the lineup, I would also bet the under but with Tampa's hot bats, I'm staying away.
STL Cardinals @ ARI Diamondbacks
Chris Carpenter vs. Max Scherzer
STL -137 over ARI --- 3 units
Carpenter has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. In his last outing he took a no hitter into the 7th and is one of hte top pitchers in the league when healthy. With the Diamondbacks struggling at the start, going 2-5 at home with a terrible .225 team batting average, I don't see them figuring out their offense against a guy like Carpenter. I like Max Scherzer this season and the future but in his one outing against the Cardinals last year (which I attended), he had a 1.80 WHIP and .350 BAA (batting average against).
Monday, April 13, 2009
April 13th updates and results
Day's results:
4-1 +6.97 units
0-2, -2 units on parlays
Overall record:
21-18, 53.85%, +5.10 units
0-5, 0%, -2.5 units on parlays --- trying to hit one big...I'm playing a half unit on each one
Results:
PHI Phillies -116 --- 2.5 units - WIN +2.16
CHI White Sox +101 --- 3 units - WIN +3.03
SF Giants +166 --- 1.5 units - LOSS
KC Royals -127 --- 1.5 units - WIN 1.18
ADDED: SD Padres +210 --- WIN 2.1 units
ADDED parlay: TB, BOS, TOR - LOSS
Parlay 1 was a LOSS --- note --- these are for fun as I'm playing very little here to see if I can make parlays profitable by the end of the season.
Updates:
11:05 - Watching the Boston game...I have 2 parlays riding on this game. If they lose tonight, I end up +4 or so units, if they win, I end up about +40 units for the night based on my two parlays...so there is quite a bit at stake. I really expected Boston to come out strong and that has not been the case. With their offense, they aren't out of the game but with each passing inning it is looking slimmer and slimmer. I'm still holding out hope...and for one of the few times in my life I'm definitely saying "LETS GO RED SOX!"
6:00 - The Giants have come out flat are losing 8-1 in what looks to be my first loss of the night. I sort of expected this but getting Randy Johnson in a big game at +166 was odds I was willing to take. Oh well...preparing for the next game of the night.
5:25 - Brad Lidge came in with a 3 run lead and just about blew the game. After giving up a single, he served up a 2 run jack to Ryan Zimmerman. Had the Washington Nationals, a terrible team, not committed 3 errors in the game, the Zimmerman homer could have very well been a game winner. This game was ugly in every way...but it's a win and I love those.
4:00 - The White Sox game was unexpectadly high scoring. After seeing how Minor through in his first start, I expected a 4-3 White Sox win and couldn't have been more wrong as the Sox ended up winning 10-6. Carlos Quentin looks to be validating his 2008 performance as he has 4 homers in the first week of games.
4-1 +6.97 units
0-2, -2 units on parlays
Overall record:
21-18, 53.85%, +5.10 units
0-5, 0%, -2.5 units on parlays --- trying to hit one big...I'm playing a half unit on each one
Results:
PHI Phillies -116 --- 2.5 units - WIN +2.16
CHI White Sox +101 --- 3 units - WIN +3.03
SF Giants +166 --- 1.5 units - LOSS
KC Royals -127 --- 1.5 units - WIN 1.18
ADDED: SD Padres +210 --- WIN 2.1 units
ADDED parlay: TB, BOS, TOR - LOSS
Parlay 1 was a LOSS --- note --- these are for fun as I'm playing very little here to see if I can make parlays profitable by the end of the season.
Updates:
11:05 - Watching the Boston game...I have 2 parlays riding on this game. If they lose tonight, I end up +4 or so units, if they win, I end up about +40 units for the night based on my two parlays...so there is quite a bit at stake. I really expected Boston to come out strong and that has not been the case. With their offense, they aren't out of the game but with each passing inning it is looking slimmer and slimmer. I'm still holding out hope...and for one of the few times in my life I'm definitely saying "LETS GO RED SOX!"
6:00 - The Giants have come out flat are losing 8-1 in what looks to be my first loss of the night. I sort of expected this but getting Randy Johnson in a big game at +166 was odds I was willing to take. Oh well...preparing for the next game of the night.
5:25 - Brad Lidge came in with a 3 run lead and just about blew the game. After giving up a single, he served up a 2 run jack to Ryan Zimmerman. Had the Washington Nationals, a terrible team, not committed 3 errors in the game, the Zimmerman homer could have very well been a game winner. This game was ugly in every way...but it's a win and I love those.
4:00 - The White Sox game was unexpectadly high scoring. After seeing how Minor through in his first start, I expected a 4-3 White Sox win and couldn't have been more wrong as the Sox ended up winning 10-6. Carlos Quentin looks to be validating his 2008 performance as he has 4 homers in the first week of games.
4/13 picks and updated overall results
After updating my record to show Thursday-Saturday's results:
17-17, 50%, -1.87 units
I made some quick picks on Friday due to my trip to KC without doing my standard research and it killed me. Friday's picks went 1-6 to take 8.52 units. That one day of terrible money management ended up wiping out my solid start. Today I look to go back into the positive. I will not be making the same mistake again this season.
On a more positive note, here are today's picks:
PHI Phillies ML -116 over Washington --- 2.5 units
Jamie Moyer vs Daniel Cabrera
CHI White Sox +102 over Detroit --- 3 units
Gavin Floyd vs Zach Miner
SF Giants +166 over LA Dodgers --- 1.5 units
Randy Johnson vs Chad Billingsley
KC Royals -127 over CLE Indians --- 1.5 units
Zach Greinke vs Fausto Carmona
Parlay pick:
1 unit to win 28.50 units
BAL/TEX 10.5 Under, CHW/DET 9 under, PITT ML, TOR/MIN 8.5 under, BOS ML, TB ML
17-17, 50%, -1.87 units
I made some quick picks on Friday due to my trip to KC without doing my standard research and it killed me. Friday's picks went 1-6 to take 8.52 units. That one day of terrible money management ended up wiping out my solid start. Today I look to go back into the positive. I will not be making the same mistake again this season.
On a more positive note, here are today's picks:
PHI Phillies ML -116 over Washington --- 2.5 units
Jamie Moyer vs Daniel Cabrera
CHI White Sox +102 over Detroit --- 3 units
Gavin Floyd vs Zach Miner
SF Giants +166 over LA Dodgers --- 1.5 units
Randy Johnson vs Chad Billingsley
KC Royals -127 over CLE Indians --- 1.5 units
Zach Greinke vs Fausto Carmona
Parlay pick:
1 unit to win 28.50 units
BAL/TEX 10.5 Under, CHW/DET 9 under, PITT ML, TOR/MIN 8.5 under, BOS ML, TB ML
Sunday, April 12, 2009
4/12 Update - Joe Morgan is one of the worst announcers of all time
Update title says it all. While Morgan hasn't gone on an inning long 1 man conversation on how teams like to try and score runs, he is a one man wrecking crew on a tv broadcast. He is currently the 2nd worst color man in all of baseball, currently right behind Al Hrbosky of the St. Louis Cardinals. If these two men are fired and leave the game, baseball will be better and more respectable.
On a more positive note, the Cubs are up 7-4 and have looked pretty solid tonight. This is one of the best defensive games I've seen in quite sometime, lead by Reed Johnson robbing Prince Fielder of what would have been a game tying grand slam. Ryan Dempster owes Reed Johnson a steak dinner...
On a more positive note, the Cubs are up 7-4 and have looked pretty solid tonight. This is one of the best defensive games I've seen in quite sometime, lead by Reed Johnson robbing Prince Fielder of what would have been a game tying grand slam. Ryan Dempster owes Reed Johnson a steak dinner...
4/12 pick
I just got back from Kansas City and wasn't able to check my picks or make any more than the 7PM game for tonight. It appears the last two nights of plays have been horrible. Hopefully things change for the week starting with:
CHI Cubs -135 over Milwaukee --- 3 units
Record will be updated tonight or tomorrow and I'm not expecting good things after so many things went wrong on Friday.
CHI Cubs -135 over Milwaukee --- 3 units
Record will be updated tonight or tomorrow and I'm not expecting good things after so many things went wrong on Friday.
Friday, April 10, 2009
4/10 Picks, Results to be updated
I am in a huge hurry, leaving for the Royals/Yankees game in Kansas City and will be there all weekend without internet access. With that being said, I will update my complete record when I get back.
Picks for today:
ATL -1.5 RL -110 --- 2 units
ATL ML -210 --- 1 unit
PHI ML -134 --- 1.5 units
CHC ML -141 --- 1.5 units
CHW ML -148 --- 1 unit
LAD/ARI under 10 -105 --- 2 units
KC ML +149 --- 1 unit
Parlay:
CHC ML, CIN ML, FLA ML, ATL RL, FLA ML
1 unit to win 20.28 units
Picks for today:
ATL -1.5 RL -110 --- 2 units
ATL ML -210 --- 1 unit
PHI ML -134 --- 1.5 units
CHC ML -141 --- 1.5 units
CHW ML -148 --- 1 unit
LAD/ARI under 10 -105 --- 2 units
KC ML +149 --- 1 unit
Parlay:
CHC ML, CIN ML, FLA ML, ATL RL, FLA ML
1 unit to win 20.28 units
Thursday, April 9, 2009
4/8 Results and April 9th picks
Today's picks:
Minnesota -133 ML --- 1.5 units Perkins vs Washburn
Perkins looked amazing all spring and should continue to throw well in his opening start. Like my other picks for Minnesota, I love their home field advantage. Washburn has traditionally thrown well against the Twins and at the Metrodome but I see Minnesota coming out on top here.
St. Louis +100 RL -1.5R --- 2 units Carpenter vs. Ohlendorf
Carpenter is a complete ace when healthy and he looked healthy all spring. Ohlendorf had a great spring until his last outing. With the Cardinals getting beat in their first two games, I expect them to come out strong against a starter who was hit hard everywhere he went in 2008.
Tampa Bay/Boston 8.5 Under --- 2 units Garza vs. Matsuzaka
Both Garza and Matsuzaka are solid pitchers who looked good in spring training. The under has played well between the two teams and I expect it to continue today.
Baltimore ML +167 --- 1.5 units
Simon vs. Burnett
I don't have a huge amount of faith in this pick but after seeing the Orioles the last two days, they're playing better than expected. Simon is a rookie pitcher who has struggled in the minors. He could come out and throw a great game as he is unknown to Yankee hitters. WIth the chance that he throws decent, I like the +167 line here on a team that has out played New York in the series.
I think I may start posting 1 parlay a day as well for 1 unit to see my record/units at year end:
MIN ML, BOS ML, NYY ML, STL RL, LAD ML, MIL ML1 unit to win 28.52 units
Overall:
14-9, 60.87%, +8.22 units
0-2 on parlays, -2 units
I went 4-4 yesterday for +.86 units...not a good day but I'll never complain about a positive unit day. I had a couple of tough breaks in the Minnesota game with them winning by 1 when I had the run line. I fully expected Slowey to come out strong and dominate the Mariners with a mix of Carlos Silva being dominated. Tough break in the game but I'll still be behind Slowey early this season. Hopefully his mediocre game softens the line in his next game. The Angels game was ugly with Fuentes blowing the save. I expect him to be solid this season but with them giving up 6 runs in the last two innings, the loss is hard to take. Gallardo had a great outind as I expected with a rough start from Randy Johnson. The Brewers pulled out the win, and I'll give them a strong look today with Manny Parra taking on Matt Cain. With three dog wins yesterday, I ended up ahead and hope I keep the streak alive today.
Yesterday's ending results
FLA -1.5 RL +135 --- 2 units - WIN
TOR ML -132 --- 2 units - LOSS
TB ML +129 --- 1.5 units - WIN
BAL ML +151 --- 1.5 units - WIN
CLE ML -119 --- 2 units - LOSS
MIN -1.5 RL +125 --- 2 units - LOSS (1 run game...)
LAA ML -103 --- 1 unit - LOSS
MIL ML -116 --- 1 unit - WIN
4-4, 50%, +.86 for the day
Picks to come...
Minnesota -133 ML --- 1.5 units Perkins vs Washburn
Perkins looked amazing all spring and should continue to throw well in his opening start. Like my other picks for Minnesota, I love their home field advantage. Washburn has traditionally thrown well against the Twins and at the Metrodome but I see Minnesota coming out on top here.
St. Louis +100 RL -1.5R --- 2 units Carpenter vs. Ohlendorf
Carpenter is a complete ace when healthy and he looked healthy all spring. Ohlendorf had a great spring until his last outing. With the Cardinals getting beat in their first two games, I expect them to come out strong against a starter who was hit hard everywhere he went in 2008.
Tampa Bay/Boston 8.5 Under --- 2 units Garza vs. Matsuzaka
Both Garza and Matsuzaka are solid pitchers who looked good in spring training. The under has played well between the two teams and I expect it to continue today.
Baltimore ML +167 --- 1.5 units
Simon vs. Burnett
I don't have a huge amount of faith in this pick but after seeing the Orioles the last two days, they're playing better than expected. Simon is a rookie pitcher who has struggled in the minors. He could come out and throw a great game as he is unknown to Yankee hitters. WIth the chance that he throws decent, I like the +167 line here on a team that has out played New York in the series.
I think I may start posting 1 parlay a day as well for 1 unit to see my record/units at year end:
MIN ML, BOS ML, NYY ML, STL RL, LAD ML, MIL ML1 unit to win 28.52 units
Overall:
14-9, 60.87%, +8.22 units
0-2 on parlays, -2 units
I went 4-4 yesterday for +.86 units...not a good day but I'll never complain about a positive unit day. I had a couple of tough breaks in the Minnesota game with them winning by 1 when I had the run line. I fully expected Slowey to come out strong and dominate the Mariners with a mix of Carlos Silva being dominated. Tough break in the game but I'll still be behind Slowey early this season. Hopefully his mediocre game softens the line in his next game. The Angels game was ugly with Fuentes blowing the save. I expect him to be solid this season but with them giving up 6 runs in the last two innings, the loss is hard to take. Gallardo had a great outind as I expected with a rough start from Randy Johnson. The Brewers pulled out the win, and I'll give them a strong look today with Manny Parra taking on Matt Cain. With three dog wins yesterday, I ended up ahead and hope I keep the streak alive today.
Yesterday's ending results
FLA -1.5 RL +135 --- 2 units - WIN
TOR ML -132 --- 2 units - LOSS
TB ML +129 --- 1.5 units - WIN
BAL ML +151 --- 1.5 units - WIN
CLE ML -119 --- 2 units - LOSS
MIN -1.5 RL +125 --- 2 units - LOSS (1 run game...)
LAA ML -103 --- 1 unit - LOSS
MIL ML -116 --- 1 unit - WIN
4-4, 50%, +.86 for the day
Picks to come...
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
April 8th plays and write ups
-------Updates-------
2:15 - Marlins just win on an overall ugly game. Volstad had a nice game but was a bit more wild than expected. It came down to the Marlins being up 6-3 in the top of the 9th. Matt Lindstrom comes in only to walk the leadoff batter. He then struck out Christian Guzman before Elijah Dukes singled. So with 2 guys on and 1 out, Ryan Zimmerman hits a nice double play ball to Dan Uggla who commences to bobble it resulting in an error and a bases loaded situation with Adam Dunn at the plate. Lindstrom walked Dunn to bring the score to 6-4 followed by a strikeout and a strong line out off the bat of Austin Kearns to finish the game. The Marlins win 6-4 and preserve the run line...whew...
Overall:
10-5, 66.67%, +7.45 units
0-1, 0.00%, -1 unit on parlays
I had a great night last night, ending up going 5-1 on regular plays and up over 5 units. I hope to make tonight just as good. Here are my plays of the day currently:
Milwaukee moneyline -116 --- 1 unit
Gallardo vs. Randy Johnson
This is one of my weaker plays of the day but I really think highly of Gallardo. Johnson can come out and dominate but he struggled last April with a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He had a tough time at night compared to the day last year but that hardly matters as he’s been better during night games throughout his career. Most importantly, we saw the Brewers crush left handers last year at a .269/.458/.806 clip compared to .246/.421/.738 against righties. Yovani Gallardo has thrown substantially better at night compared to the day and had a decent spring. This pick is more or less a hunch pick compared to many of the others.
Florida Marlins -1.5 RL +135 over Washington --- 2 units -- WIN
Chris Volstad vs. Daniel Cabrera
Florida has looked solid in their first two games, putting up 8+ runs both days. Daniel Cabrera is starting for Washington and had a 6+ ERA in spring training with 7BB’s in 12 innings…meaning his control problems continue to plague him. In his one outing against Florida, Cabrera was shelled for 6 ER in 5.2 innings. Volstad looked great last year and decent in spring training. The pitching match up here leans strongly into Florida’s favor and Florida’s offense is much more potent. As much as I like Florida to outplay predictions, this play is as much as a fade on Cabrera as it is a pick for Florida. I’m thinking we see another high scoring game as the Marlins jump on Cabrera. If they are patient early, they could have Cabrera gone by the 4th inning. If they come out swinging at everything, this could be closer than it should be.
More analysis coming.
Toronto Blue Jays ML -132 over Detroit --- 2 units
Jesse Litsch vs. Zach Miner
This should be a nice matchup for the Blue Jays at home. With Jesse Litsch, the Jays have a guy who had a great spring and flashed strong talent last year. In his only start against Detroit, he held them scoreless over 7 innings while allowing only 6 base runners. His home/away splits are meaningful with his ERA at home at 2.77 compared to 4.32 on the road. Zach Miner has a few split stats in his favor such as home/away ERA, day/night performance, and his innings against Toronto, but his spring was brutal as was his beginning to 2008.
Tampa Bay ML +129 over Boston --- 1.5 units
Scott Kazmir vs. Jon Lester
This one was tough. Both pitchers are solid and both looked good in the spring. Lester dominates at Fenway and it should be a tough matchup but Kazmir has competed well against the Red Sox and their stadium. I initially was going to go with Boston here but with Tampa Bay losing the first game closely, I think they come out focused and looking for their first win of the season. It won’t be an easy task but at +129, I’m getting decent odds on a game that I think will come down to a run.
Baltimore ML +151 over New York --- 1.5 units
K.Uehara vs Chin Ming Wang
This will be Uehara’s first MLB outing. He had a solid spring and posted nice numbers in Japan. Guys like this are intriguing as they haven’t been seen by the other team but they aren’t coming in fresh like a rookie. Many of these Japanese pitchers have effective deliveries that are incredibly different than the American starters that teams see day in and day out. Wang is a solid pitcher who had a decent spring but I’m betting the dog based on Uehara, his Japanese past, and his nice spring. With him throwing at home against a hyped team, I like the odds here at +151.
Cleveland ML -117 over Texas --- 2 units
Carmona vs Padilla
I like Carmona...he was an ace in 2007 and regressed in 2008. He's had a great spring and I'm hoping he's back. Padilla, while he finds a way to win, is an average pitcher at best. I'm basing everything on Fausto looking good tonight against a stacked Texas lineup.
Minnesota RL -1.5 +125 over Seattle --- 2 units
Kevin Slowey vs. Carlos Silva
This is an easy one. Kevin Slowey will end up being a top tier starter this year and will start it off tonight against a below average offense. In additon, Minnesota has one of the biggest home field advantages in baseball. Carlos Silva is garbage and has been hit hard by the Twins in the past. I'm banking on a nice outing from Slowey and one of Carlos Silva's normal starts...which would lead to a Twins win by 2 or more.
LA Angels ML -103 over Oakland --- 1 unit
Nick Adenhart vs. Dana Eveland
Adenhart has been great in spring training, as have the Angels. Oakland is getting a lot of attention from the media, saying they're the new challengers in the West. I don't see it and expect the better team to prevail here. Eveland may be tough tonight considering his home split stats but I expect the Angels to battle...hopefully for a underdog win on the road.
Parlay play of the day:
TOR ML, MIN RL, TB/BOS 8.5Under, STL/PIT 8.5 over, CHC ML
1 unit to win 21.92 units
2:15 - Marlins just win on an overall ugly game. Volstad had a nice game but was a bit more wild than expected. It came down to the Marlins being up 6-3 in the top of the 9th. Matt Lindstrom comes in only to walk the leadoff batter. He then struck out Christian Guzman before Elijah Dukes singled. So with 2 guys on and 1 out, Ryan Zimmerman hits a nice double play ball to Dan Uggla who commences to bobble it resulting in an error and a bases loaded situation with Adam Dunn at the plate. Lindstrom walked Dunn to bring the score to 6-4 followed by a strikeout and a strong line out off the bat of Austin Kearns to finish the game. The Marlins win 6-4 and preserve the run line...whew...
Overall:
10-5, 66.67%, +7.45 units
0-1, 0.00%, -1 unit on parlays
I had a great night last night, ending up going 5-1 on regular plays and up over 5 units. I hope to make tonight just as good. Here are my plays of the day currently:
Milwaukee moneyline -116 --- 1 unit
Gallardo vs. Randy Johnson
This is one of my weaker plays of the day but I really think highly of Gallardo. Johnson can come out and dominate but he struggled last April with a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He had a tough time at night compared to the day last year but that hardly matters as he’s been better during night games throughout his career. Most importantly, we saw the Brewers crush left handers last year at a .269/.458/.806 clip compared to .246/.421/.738 against righties. Yovani Gallardo has thrown substantially better at night compared to the day and had a decent spring. This pick is more or less a hunch pick compared to many of the others.
Florida Marlins -1.5 RL +135 over Washington --- 2 units -- WIN
Chris Volstad vs. Daniel Cabrera
Florida has looked solid in their first two games, putting up 8+ runs both days. Daniel Cabrera is starting for Washington and had a 6+ ERA in spring training with 7BB’s in 12 innings…meaning his control problems continue to plague him. In his one outing against Florida, Cabrera was shelled for 6 ER in 5.2 innings. Volstad looked great last year and decent in spring training. The pitching match up here leans strongly into Florida’s favor and Florida’s offense is much more potent. As much as I like Florida to outplay predictions, this play is as much as a fade on Cabrera as it is a pick for Florida. I’m thinking we see another high scoring game as the Marlins jump on Cabrera. If they are patient early, they could have Cabrera gone by the 4th inning. If they come out swinging at everything, this could be closer than it should be.
More analysis coming.
Toronto Blue Jays ML -132 over Detroit --- 2 units
Jesse Litsch vs. Zach Miner
This should be a nice matchup for the Blue Jays at home. With Jesse Litsch, the Jays have a guy who had a great spring and flashed strong talent last year. In his only start against Detroit, he held them scoreless over 7 innings while allowing only 6 base runners. His home/away splits are meaningful with his ERA at home at 2.77 compared to 4.32 on the road. Zach Miner has a few split stats in his favor such as home/away ERA, day/night performance, and his innings against Toronto, but his spring was brutal as was his beginning to 2008.
Tampa Bay ML +129 over Boston --- 1.5 units
Scott Kazmir vs. Jon Lester
This one was tough. Both pitchers are solid and both looked good in the spring. Lester dominates at Fenway and it should be a tough matchup but Kazmir has competed well against the Red Sox and their stadium. I initially was going to go with Boston here but with Tampa Bay losing the first game closely, I think they come out focused and looking for their first win of the season. It won’t be an easy task but at +129, I’m getting decent odds on a game that I think will come down to a run.
Baltimore ML +151 over New York --- 1.5 units
K.Uehara vs Chin Ming Wang
This will be Uehara’s first MLB outing. He had a solid spring and posted nice numbers in Japan. Guys like this are intriguing as they haven’t been seen by the other team but they aren’t coming in fresh like a rookie. Many of these Japanese pitchers have effective deliveries that are incredibly different than the American starters that teams see day in and day out. Wang is a solid pitcher who had a decent spring but I’m betting the dog based on Uehara, his Japanese past, and his nice spring. With him throwing at home against a hyped team, I like the odds here at +151.
Cleveland ML -117 over Texas --- 2 units
Carmona vs Padilla
I like Carmona...he was an ace in 2007 and regressed in 2008. He's had a great spring and I'm hoping he's back. Padilla, while he finds a way to win, is an average pitcher at best. I'm basing everything on Fausto looking good tonight against a stacked Texas lineup.
Minnesota RL -1.5 +125 over Seattle --- 2 units
Kevin Slowey vs. Carlos Silva
This is an easy one. Kevin Slowey will end up being a top tier starter this year and will start it off tonight against a below average offense. In additon, Minnesota has one of the biggest home field advantages in baseball. Carlos Silva is garbage and has been hit hard by the Twins in the past. I'm banking on a nice outing from Slowey and one of Carlos Silva's normal starts...which would lead to a Twins win by 2 or more.
LA Angels ML -103 over Oakland --- 1 unit
Nick Adenhart vs. Dana Eveland
Adenhart has been great in spring training, as have the Angels. Oakland is getting a lot of attention from the media, saying they're the new challengers in the West. I don't see it and expect the better team to prevail here. Eveland may be tough tonight considering his home split stats but I expect the Angels to battle...hopefully for a underdog win on the road.
Parlay play of the day:
TOR ML, MIN RL, TB/BOS 8.5Under, STL/PIT 8.5 over, CHC ML
1 unit to win 21.92 units
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
4/7 Picks
Update:
So far my bets have gone 5-0 tonight with 2 still pending adding 7.43 units to my account. I'm crossing my fingers on my other two plays but both are looking unlikely. I watched the Cubs game tonight and saw them blow a 2-2 game in the 10th...not something I enjoyed. Tomorrow should be a solid day of games as all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to play. Hopefully I can get a bit more time to post some thoughts on some games and possible plays. If you've decided to start following my day to day bets, posts, and thoughts, thanks and if you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment on a post and I'll be sure to reply.
Current picks for the day:
BOS ML -145 - 2 units - WIN 1.38
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units - WIN 1.67
FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units - WIN 2.03
MIN ML -112 - 1 unit - WIN .89
ARI -153 - 1.5 units - pending
ATL -103 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.46
1 unit parlay --- ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML - pending
Busy today so I may not be able to post detailed reasoning. Hopefully things change and I can post some explanations.
So far my bets have gone 5-0 tonight with 2 still pending adding 7.43 units to my account. I'm crossing my fingers on my other two plays but both are looking unlikely. I watched the Cubs game tonight and saw them blow a 2-2 game in the 10th...not something I enjoyed. Tomorrow should be a solid day of games as all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to play. Hopefully I can get a bit more time to post some thoughts on some games and possible plays. If you've decided to start following my day to day bets, posts, and thoughts, thanks and if you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment on a post and I'll be sure to reply.
Current picks for the day:
BOS ML -145 - 2 units - WIN 1.38
MIL/SF 7R over -120 - 2 units - WIN 1.67
FLA RL -1.5 +135 - 1.5 units - WIN 2.03
MIN ML -112 - 1 unit - WIN .89
ARI -153 - 1.5 units - pending
ATL -103 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.46
1 unit parlay --- ARI ML, OAK/LAA 9 over, LAD ML, STL/PIT 8.5 over, STL ML - pending
Busy today so I may not be able to post detailed reasoning. Hopefully things change and I can post some explanations.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Opening day plays
After opening day: Overall 2009 MLB stats: 6-4, 60%, +2.17 units
Note: Blog edits are for updates only. I post 99% of my plays at forums to prevent any second guess plays. Anyone that follows will notice that all of my plays will be posted before game time. Win or lose, my first season of posted plays will be honest and legit. Good luck to those who tail any of my plays.
For the day: 3-4, 42.9%, - 1.69 units
ANA ML -135 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.11 units
TOR ML -154 - 1 unit - WIN .65 units
Halladay against Detroit at home. The Tigers were the worst offensive team throughout spring training this year and should continue to be stymied against one of the top starters in baseball. Verlander's last spring outing was disgusting...so hopefully that continues today.
SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit - LOSS
Peavy owns the LA Dodgers with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 143.1 total innings. He's solid at home with a 2.77 ERA at home compared 3.80 on the road. San Diego should struggle to win 70 games this year but I like Peavy to dominate this game and lead the Padres to a win here. Kuroda, while solid this spring, isn't a number one type of starter. I hate taking the -1.5 RL on a team that will struggle to score, but if Peavy throws like I think he will, it may just take 2 runs from San Diego to cash this one...and at +170, I like the chances here.
PITT ML +155 - 1 unit - WIN 1.55 units
Update - Game over
Great game here for Pittsburgh. I was torn on what should happen here as I wanted the under to hit as it could lead to 2 larger wins in parlays but overall I can say I'm pleased with a dog win here. It helps that I root against the Cardinals consistently as a huge Cubs fan.
Maholm has done very well against the Cardinals. In the analysis below, I said if the line came out at +135 or higher, I'd make a play...so I really like +155. The under in this game stands at 7.5...and I'm likely to make a play on that as well.
1 unit parlay to win 1.87 units - LOSS
STL/PIT 7.5 under -110
NYY ML -200
NYM -1.5 RL +105 - 2 units - LOSS
I really like the Mets to win by 2 or more here. In their 7 games against the Reds in 2008, the Mets went 4-3. Not 1 of those 7 games were decided by one run and all but 1 of those games totaled 8 runs or more. I don't see the trap here (even as the Reds line has gone down significately in the last few hours) as Santana has been solid throughout the spring and is obviously one of the best starters in baseball. I think Harang's off season weight loss is being blown out of proportion as he struggled through spring with a line eerily similar to his below average 2008 season. I like the Reds this year and think they out perform some expectations but I don't see them taking down the Mets today.
Update:
Game end - Tough break here. The Mets had a ton of chances to score and couldn't get it done. David Wright was thrown out at home on a terrible decision by the 3rd base coach. Overall, 2 runs on 9 hits, 1 error, and 7 walks...so a pretty terrible offensive day when translating base runners to runs. Obviously the I lost the over here too. Unfortunate, but all part of the season.
3:30PM - The over would have a much better chance had Carlos Delgado not just popped up with the bases loaded. He was 2-3 with 2HR in his career against Mike Lincoln and just missed a fastball that split the plate. There isn't much hope for the over but there's still a 3.5 innings left and the Mets are into the Reds mediocre bullpen. Good news is that Luis Castillo scored to go up 2-0 which would cash my RL bet if were to end now.
3PM - The 7.5 over isn't looking good with a 1-0 Mets lead in the bottom of the 5th. Harang should be done and through decent at best. I think the weather is having a big effect on the bats today and I should have taken that into more consideration like I did when taking the 7.5 under in the STL/PIT game.
NYM/CIN 7.5 run over - 1 unit - LOSS
In 7 of their 8 games in 2008, these teams totaled 8 runs or more. The Reds hit Santana well last year and the Mets did the same to Harang. While I don't expect this to be a scoring fest, I expect this game to go over the 7.5 run mark.
More to come...
Note: Blog edits are for updates only. I post 99% of my plays at forums to prevent any second guess plays. Anyone that follows will notice that all of my plays will be posted before game time. Win or lose, my first season of posted plays will be honest and legit. Good luck to those who tail any of my plays.
For the day: 3-4, 42.9%, - 1.69 units
ANA ML -135 - 1.5 units - WIN 1.11 units
TOR ML -154 - 1 unit - WIN .65 units
Halladay against Detroit at home. The Tigers were the worst offensive team throughout spring training this year and should continue to be stymied against one of the top starters in baseball. Verlander's last spring outing was disgusting...so hopefully that continues today.
SD -1.5 RL +170 - 1 unit - LOSS
Peavy owns the LA Dodgers with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 143.1 total innings. He's solid at home with a 2.77 ERA at home compared 3.80 on the road. San Diego should struggle to win 70 games this year but I like Peavy to dominate this game and lead the Padres to a win here. Kuroda, while solid this spring, isn't a number one type of starter. I hate taking the -1.5 RL on a team that will struggle to score, but if Peavy throws like I think he will, it may just take 2 runs from San Diego to cash this one...and at +170, I like the chances here.
PITT ML +155 - 1 unit - WIN 1.55 units
Update - Game over
Great game here for Pittsburgh. I was torn on what should happen here as I wanted the under to hit as it could lead to 2 larger wins in parlays but overall I can say I'm pleased with a dog win here. It helps that I root against the Cardinals consistently as a huge Cubs fan.
Maholm has done very well against the Cardinals. In the analysis below, I said if the line came out at +135 or higher, I'd make a play...so I really like +155. The under in this game stands at 7.5...and I'm likely to make a play on that as well.
1 unit parlay to win 1.87 units - LOSS
STL/PIT 7.5 under -110
NYY ML -200
NYM -1.5 RL +105 - 2 units - LOSS
I really like the Mets to win by 2 or more here. In their 7 games against the Reds in 2008, the Mets went 4-3. Not 1 of those 7 games were decided by one run and all but 1 of those games totaled 8 runs or more. I don't see the trap here (even as the Reds line has gone down significately in the last few hours) as Santana has been solid throughout the spring and is obviously one of the best starters in baseball. I think Harang's off season weight loss is being blown out of proportion as he struggled through spring with a line eerily similar to his below average 2008 season. I like the Reds this year and think they out perform some expectations but I don't see them taking down the Mets today.
Update:
Game end - Tough break here. The Mets had a ton of chances to score and couldn't get it done. David Wright was thrown out at home on a terrible decision by the 3rd base coach. Overall, 2 runs on 9 hits, 1 error, and 7 walks...so a pretty terrible offensive day when translating base runners to runs. Obviously the I lost the over here too. Unfortunate, but all part of the season.
3:30PM - The over would have a much better chance had Carlos Delgado not just popped up with the bases loaded. He was 2-3 with 2HR in his career against Mike Lincoln and just missed a fastball that split the plate. There isn't much hope for the over but there's still a 3.5 innings left and the Mets are into the Reds mediocre bullpen. Good news is that Luis Castillo scored to go up 2-0 which would cash my RL bet if were to end now.
3PM - The 7.5 over isn't looking good with a 1-0 Mets lead in the bottom of the 5th. Harang should be done and through decent at best. I think the weather is having a big effect on the bats today and I should have taken that into more consideration like I did when taking the 7.5 under in the STL/PIT game.
NYM/CIN 7.5 run over - 1 unit - LOSS
In 7 of their 8 games in 2008, these teams totaled 8 runs or more. The Reds hit Santana well last year and the Mets did the same to Harang. While I don't expect this to be a scoring fest, I expect this game to go over the 7.5 run mark.
More to come...
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The holiday known as opening day
I am off work for the day's games...for the 3rd year in a row. With 6 games televised on ESPN, ESPN 2, or Fox Sports Midwest, I have a full day of baseball. I'm going to look at those games first and foremost when looking for plays.
12:10 PM CST
NY Mets @ CIN Reds
J.Santana vs A.Harang
Game is on ESPN
The Reds were significantly more successful against left handers last year, hitting .257 as a team compared to .243 against right handers. Obviously Santana is not your run of the mill left hander, but it should be noted the Reds were very effective against Johan in 2008, actually the most successful team in 2008. The Reds punished Johan to the tune of 16 hits in 10 innings, giving him a 7.20 ERA over his 2 starts. Harang didn't throw an inning against the Mets in 2008 and while he faced them in 2007, I don't think the stats have any strong meaning as Harang hasn't been effective in well over a year. In spring training, Harang has continued his 2008 season trends, compiling a mid-4 ERA allowing over 1 hit per inning pitched. Johan has been effective throughout the spring and all indications show he should continue that in his first official start of the year. The Reds will be hyped up but I think it'll be a losing effort against one of the top pitchers in the game.
A few key numbers from 2008:
*Reds were 3-3 against the Mets
*The Mets won both games Santana started
*Reds 2-3 in season openers in the last 5 years.
*Mets 4-1 in season openers in the last 5 years
Initial lean: New York wins, 6-2
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1:05 PM CST
TB Rays @ BOS Red Sox
James Shields vs Josh Beckett
Game is on ESPN 2
James Shields important numbers and splits:
5.85 ERA, 20ip, 20 hits against Boston in 2008
4.82 ERA on the road compared to 2.59 at home
2 quality starts out of 3 in his 1st start of the year
8.16 ERA in 14.1 innings in spring training
Tampa Bay is 0-3 when Shields has started at Fenway
Josh Beckett's important numbers and splits:
5.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP at home compared to 2.85/1.05 on the road
Dominated TB with a 2.06 ERA with a .91 WHIP
5.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in day games compared to 3.25/1.14 at night
4 solid starts out of his last 5 openers
3.25 ERA over 37 innings in spring training
20IP against TB at home, giving up just 6 ER
Other trends:
Boston's opening games have totaled 8 runs or less in 3 of the last 4 years
With Beckett's strong spring training, I see a clear advantage here. He has always been a big game pitcher, making this an even stronger play as he'll be amped for the home opener. Shields has looked awful all spring and has been even worse against Boston in the past.
Initial lean: Boston over TB, 7-3 prediction
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3:15 PM CST
PIT Pirates @ STL Cardinals
Paul Maholm vs. Adam Wainwright
Game is on Fox Sports Midwest
Adam Wainwright stats and splits:
Was shelled by Pittsburgh in 12 innings (8.25 ERA, 16 hits allowed)
Dominated at home with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Better during the day rather than night (3.03 ERA vs 3.27)
2 ER or less in his last two openers
STL was 0-2 against PIT in Wainwright's starts
Proficient in spring training with a 3.60 ERA in 25 IP
Paul Maholm stats and splits:
Not as successful during the day (4.30 ERA vs 3.42 at night)
Struggles on the road with a 4.13 ERA vs 3.36 at home
Was great against St. Louis in 2008 with a 3.05 ERA in 20.2 IP
While his ERA against STL was stellar, his WHIP shows that he may have been a bit lucky (1.35)
PIT was 2-1 against STL when Maholm started
Has given up 4 or more ER in his last 3 openers
Dominated spring training with a 1.52 ERA and just 2 walks in 23+ IP
Pittsburgh was 17-15 in ST
St. Louis was 19-12
Initial lean: St. Louis currently but this should be a toss up. I see Maholm breaking out into a upper level starter this year and it makes this pick tough. If Pittsburgh comes out at +135 or higher, I'll make a play for Pittsburgh, otherwise this appears to be a no play. Both pitchers have faired very well throughout spring training. The smart play here may be the under rather than a money line.
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6:05 PM CST
CHI Cubs @ HOU Astros
Carlos Zambrano vs. Roy Oswalt
Game is on ESPN
Carlos Zambrano stats and splits:
Much better at night, 3.18 ERA over 5.66 during the day
Solid against Houston, throwing 27.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP
Didn't fair so well at Minute Maid, sported a 5.68 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 6.1 innings
Was shelled at Minute Maid in 2007 as well...
2-1 in 4 starts against Houston in 2008
Rough outings in 3 of his last 5 opening starts
3.20 ERA in 25.1 spring training innings
Roy Oswalt stats and splits:
4.15 ERA in 14 spring training innings (shortened due to WBC)
Worse at home, sporting a 3.73 ERA compared to 3.34 on the road in 2008, but dominated at home in 2007 with a 1.91 ERA compared to 4.77 on the road
3.71 ERA at night compared to 2.66 during the day
Had a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against the Cubs in 2008, going 1-1
Cubs opening games have totaled 22+ runs in 2 of the last 4 years
Astros games have totaled 7 or less runs in the last 4 years
Cubs went 18-18 in spring training
Houston went 12-20
Initial lean: I say Chicago takes this game as they're the overall better team. I've seen Oswalt a couple of times this spring during high intensity innings and he didn't seem to have his usual stuff. I'm leaning toward Chicago here but it seems to be close to a coin flip. Zambrano's history at Minute Maid is scary but you really never know what you'll get with him and his emotions. He has more desire to win than any pitcher I've ever seen, almost to a fault but I could see that being a problem tomorrow. With Minute Maid being the size of a high school girls softball field, an early home run given up by Zambrano could throw him off his game and cause him to implode early. If I make a play here it will most likely be 1 unit at most.
Other plays and analysis to be posted tomorrow.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/5 bet results
Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units - WIN
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit - WIN
Total H/R/E 2.5 over -115 ---- 1 unit - WIN
3-0, 100%, +3.86 units
12:10 PM CST
NY Mets @ CIN Reds
J.Santana vs A.Harang
Game is on ESPN
The Reds were significantly more successful against left handers last year, hitting .257 as a team compared to .243 against right handers. Obviously Santana is not your run of the mill left hander, but it should be noted the Reds were very effective against Johan in 2008, actually the most successful team in 2008. The Reds punished Johan to the tune of 16 hits in 10 innings, giving him a 7.20 ERA over his 2 starts. Harang didn't throw an inning against the Mets in 2008 and while he faced them in 2007, I don't think the stats have any strong meaning as Harang hasn't been effective in well over a year. In spring training, Harang has continued his 2008 season trends, compiling a mid-4 ERA allowing over 1 hit per inning pitched. Johan has been effective throughout the spring and all indications show he should continue that in his first official start of the year. The Reds will be hyped up but I think it'll be a losing effort against one of the top pitchers in the game.
A few key numbers from 2008:
*Reds were 3-3 against the Mets
*The Mets won both games Santana started
*Reds 2-3 in season openers in the last 5 years.
*Mets 4-1 in season openers in the last 5 years
Initial lean: New York wins, 6-2
----------------------------------------------------------------
1:05 PM CST
TB Rays @ BOS Red Sox
James Shields vs Josh Beckett
Game is on ESPN 2
James Shields important numbers and splits:
5.85 ERA, 20ip, 20 hits against Boston in 2008
4.82 ERA on the road compared to 2.59 at home
2 quality starts out of 3 in his 1st start of the year
8.16 ERA in 14.1 innings in spring training
Tampa Bay is 0-3 when Shields has started at Fenway
Josh Beckett's important numbers and splits:
5.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP at home compared to 2.85/1.05 on the road
Dominated TB with a 2.06 ERA with a .91 WHIP
5.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in day games compared to 3.25/1.14 at night
4 solid starts out of his last 5 openers
3.25 ERA over 37 innings in spring training
20IP against TB at home, giving up just 6 ER
Other trends:
Boston's opening games have totaled 8 runs or less in 3 of the last 4 years
With Beckett's strong spring training, I see a clear advantage here. He has always been a big game pitcher, making this an even stronger play as he'll be amped for the home opener. Shields has looked awful all spring and has been even worse against Boston in the past.
Initial lean: Boston over TB, 7-3 prediction
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3:15 PM CST
PIT Pirates @ STL Cardinals
Paul Maholm vs. Adam Wainwright
Game is on Fox Sports Midwest
Adam Wainwright stats and splits:
Was shelled by Pittsburgh in 12 innings (8.25 ERA, 16 hits allowed)
Dominated at home with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Better during the day rather than night (3.03 ERA vs 3.27)
2 ER or less in his last two openers
STL was 0-2 against PIT in Wainwright's starts
Proficient in spring training with a 3.60 ERA in 25 IP
Paul Maholm stats and splits:
Not as successful during the day (4.30 ERA vs 3.42 at night)
Struggles on the road with a 4.13 ERA vs 3.36 at home
Was great against St. Louis in 2008 with a 3.05 ERA in 20.2 IP
While his ERA against STL was stellar, his WHIP shows that he may have been a bit lucky (1.35)
PIT was 2-1 against STL when Maholm started
Has given up 4 or more ER in his last 3 openers
Dominated spring training with a 1.52 ERA and just 2 walks in 23+ IP
Pittsburgh was 17-15 in ST
St. Louis was 19-12
Initial lean: St. Louis currently but this should be a toss up. I see Maholm breaking out into a upper level starter this year and it makes this pick tough. If Pittsburgh comes out at +135 or higher, I'll make a play for Pittsburgh, otherwise this appears to be a no play. Both pitchers have faired very well throughout spring training. The smart play here may be the under rather than a money line.
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6:05 PM CST
CHI Cubs @ HOU Astros
Carlos Zambrano vs. Roy Oswalt
Game is on ESPN
Carlos Zambrano stats and splits:
Much better at night, 3.18 ERA over 5.66 during the day
Solid against Houston, throwing 27.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP
Didn't fair so well at Minute Maid, sported a 5.68 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 6.1 innings
Was shelled at Minute Maid in 2007 as well...
2-1 in 4 starts against Houston in 2008
Rough outings in 3 of his last 5 opening starts
3.20 ERA in 25.1 spring training innings
Roy Oswalt stats and splits:
4.15 ERA in 14 spring training innings (shortened due to WBC)
Worse at home, sporting a 3.73 ERA compared to 3.34 on the road in 2008, but dominated at home in 2007 with a 1.91 ERA compared to 4.77 on the road
3.71 ERA at night compared to 2.66 during the day
Had a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against the Cubs in 2008, going 1-1
Cubs opening games have totaled 22+ runs in 2 of the last 4 years
Astros games have totaled 7 or less runs in the last 4 years
Cubs went 18-18 in spring training
Houston went 12-20
Initial lean: I say Chicago takes this game as they're the overall better team. I've seen Oswalt a couple of times this spring during high intensity innings and he didn't seem to have his usual stuff. I'm leaning toward Chicago here but it seems to be close to a coin flip. Zambrano's history at Minute Maid is scary but you really never know what you'll get with him and his emotions. He has more desire to win than any pitcher I've ever seen, almost to a fault but I could see that being a problem tomorrow. With Minute Maid being the size of a high school girls softball field, an early home run given up by Zambrano could throw him off his game and cause him to implode early. If I make a play here it will most likely be 1 unit at most.
Other plays and analysis to be posted tomorrow.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/5 bet results
Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units - WIN
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit - WIN
Total H/R/E 2.5 over -115 ---- 1 unit - WIN
3-0, 100%, +3.86 units
The opening game, it's about time...
Tonight's game lines at beted.com
ATL +115 D.Lowe
PHI -135 - B.Myers
Other intriguing lines:
Team ahead at the end of 4.5 innings
ATL -145
PHI +105
Total hits/errors/runs over under 2.5 in the first inning
Over -115
Under -125
Looking the numbers and the trends I posted on Friday, I like Derek Lowe and Atlanta tonight. He's been solid against the Phillies and loves pitching at night. Myers, while solid in April, was very prone to giving up home runs last year. The Braves hit Myers very well last season and during spring training. I see there being no reason that doesn't continue.
Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit
Total H/R/E 2.5 over -115 ---- 1 unit
As a fan of Lowe and Atlanta for the game, I see Atlanta leading after 4.5 innings. I like them to hit at least 1 HR off Myers in the first 4 innings, and in Atlanta's two games against Myers last year, they jumped all over him in the first two innings. Due to that fact, I will also be making a small play on the 2.5 H/R/E for 1 unit.
In the future, I rarely will make 3 plays on one game, but with this being the season opener it should make it even more exciting.
Yesterday's results:
CHC 2 units - LOSS
BOS 2 units - WIN
Posted plays: 1-1, 50%, -.19 units
I currently am using www.beted.com but as soon as I can figure out a way to get money into www.matchbook.com, I will be going that route as the lines are much more favorable compared to my current book.
ATL +115 D.Lowe
PHI -135 - B.Myers
Other intriguing lines:
Team ahead at the end of 4.5 innings
ATL -145
PHI +105
Total hits/errors/runs over under 2.5 in the first inning
Over -115
Under -125
Looking the numbers and the trends I posted on Friday, I like Derek Lowe and Atlanta tonight. He's been solid against the Phillies and loves pitching at night. Myers, while solid in April, was very prone to giving up home runs last year. The Braves hit Myers very well last season and during spring training. I see there being no reason that doesn't continue.
Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit
Total H/R/E 2.5 over -115 ---- 1 unit
As a fan of Lowe and Atlanta for the game, I see Atlanta leading after 4.5 innings. I like them to hit at least 1 HR off Myers in the first 4 innings, and in Atlanta's two games against Myers last year, they jumped all over him in the first two innings. Due to that fact, I will also be making a small play on the 2.5 H/R/E for 1 unit.
In the future, I rarely will make 3 plays on one game, but with this being the season opener it should make it even more exciting.
Yesterday's results:
CHC 2 units - LOSS
BOS 2 units - WIN
Posted plays: 1-1, 50%, -.19 units
I currently am using www.beted.com but as soon as I can figure out a way to get money into www.matchbook.com, I will be going that route as the lines are much more favorable compared to my current book.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Saturday Selections
12PM update:
Cubs price has jumped to +135. The extra push up makes this too good of a price to leave on the table. The Cubs faired very well against lefties last year and hopefully they can send Pettitte packing early. If Harden's velocity back up, close to last year's, they have a great chance of taking this game.
CHC +135 - 2 units
Today Boston takes on the Mets at the new Citi Field for the both teams' last expedition game. Bsoton is going with Daisuke while the Mets are countering with Oliver Perez. Looking at the lineups for the day, the Red Sox are starting their opening day lineup as a last effort tune up for their opener on Monday.
1. Baldelli CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Ortiz DH
4. Youkilis 1B
5. Drew RF
6. Bay LF
7. Lowell 3B
8. Lowrie SS
9. Varitek C
The Mets:
1.Reyes, J, SS
2. Murphy, LF
3. Wright, 3B
4. Delgado, 1B
5. Tatis, DH
6 . Church, RF
7. Anderson, CF
8. Schneider, C
9. Castillo, 2B
Overall I look for Boston to right the ship here. They lost last night, their 2nd in a row. The Red Sox haven't lost 2 in a row since mid March and I see no reason they'll make it 3 today. Daisuke has had one spring start, giving up 1 earned run. He's 100% ready for the season from the max effort innings he threw in the WBC. Oliver Perez has had an up and down spring, with a solid start in his last outing against Baltimore, his previous being a 6ER outing against Detroit. Look for Boston to come out hacking, looking to go into their opener on the right foot...that being a win.
Play:
Boston -110 over New York ---- 2 units
Leans:
CHC +130 vs NYY
I like Chicago and know Harden can be an ace but his velocity has been down significantely this pre-season. I don't think I'm making a play due to that fact. If his velocity is back in this start, this is a great price for Chicago.
TB +113 vs PHI
I'm debating the TB/PHI game. Both offenses are in and while I like Hamels quite a bit, Garza is no slouch. I'd lean toward TB because I think this could be a 1 run game. Hamels coming off of an injury is tough to predict...and I'd imagine they'll only throw him 3 innings, 4 max making this a TB lean.
Cubs price has jumped to +135. The extra push up makes this too good of a price to leave on the table. The Cubs faired very well against lefties last year and hopefully they can send Pettitte packing early. If Harden's velocity back up, close to last year's, they have a great chance of taking this game.
CHC +135 - 2 units
Today Boston takes on the Mets at the new Citi Field for the both teams' last expedition game. Bsoton is going with Daisuke while the Mets are countering with Oliver Perez. Looking at the lineups for the day, the Red Sox are starting their opening day lineup as a last effort tune up for their opener on Monday.
1. Baldelli CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Ortiz DH
4. Youkilis 1B
5. Drew RF
6. Bay LF
7. Lowell 3B
8. Lowrie SS
9. Varitek C
The Mets:
1.Reyes, J, SS
2. Murphy, LF
3. Wright, 3B
4. Delgado, 1B
5. Tatis, DH
6 . Church, RF
7. Anderson, CF
8. Schneider, C
9. Castillo, 2B
Overall I look for Boston to right the ship here. They lost last night, their 2nd in a row. The Red Sox haven't lost 2 in a row since mid March and I see no reason they'll make it 3 today. Daisuke has had one spring start, giving up 1 earned run. He's 100% ready for the season from the max effort innings he threw in the WBC. Oliver Perez has had an up and down spring, with a solid start in his last outing against Baltimore, his previous being a 6ER outing against Detroit. Look for Boston to come out hacking, looking to go into their opener on the right foot...that being a win.
Play:
Boston -110 over New York ---- 2 units
Leans:
CHC +130 vs NYY
I like Chicago and know Harden can be an ace but his velocity has been down significantely this pre-season. I don't think I'm making a play due to that fact. If his velocity is back in this start, this is a great price for Chicago.
TB +113 vs PHI
I'm debating the TB/PHI game. Both offenses are in and while I like Hamels quite a bit, Garza is no slouch. I'd lean toward TB because I think this could be a 1 run game. Hamels coming off of an injury is tough to predict...and I'd imagine they'll only throw him 3 innings, 4 max making this a TB lean.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Opening game initial thoughts: ATL @ PHI
April 5th we see the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Atlanta Braves at 7:05 CT in what amounts to Christmas Eve for the die hard baseball fan.
A detailed look at Phillies starter Brett Myers:
Due to Cole Hamels's arm stiffness, the Phillies will trot out Brett Myers in 2009's first official game. Myers has thrown 23 innings in spring training with a 3.52 ERA and a 16/6 K/BB ratio. Myers turned it on in the second half last year in almost every way. He lowered his ERA from 5.84 in the first half to 3.06 in the second. His K/BB ratio went from 2 even to 3.57 making the ERA drop look legitimate. Over the spring, Myers hasn't dominated like he did in the second half but hasn't flopped like he did in the first. His xERA's from last show that his progress looks real. One major split that should have an effect on the betting line would be his home/away split difference. Since 2006, he's consistently been better at Citizen's Bank than on the road. 2008 revealed a major difference as his home ERA/WHIP/BAA was 3.01/1.17/.232 compared to 6.21/1.61/.301 on the road. I don't expect this strong of a split in 2009, but the difference is real and should be something reviewed before both starting him on your fantasy team or betting on him in the future.
Key game stat: In 2 starts totaling 8.2 innings against Atlanta in 2008, Myers allowed 10ER on 19 hits while walking 5, resulting in 2 losses, both at Citizen's Bank.
A detailed look at Derek Lowe:
A new aquisition, Derek Lowe takes over as the Atlanta ace and will start their road opener at Philadelphia. Lowe has pitched relatively well in spring training this year shown by his 3.81 ERA, 26K's, and 2 BB's in 26 total innings. As last year progressed, so did Lowe. Like Myers, he was a different pitcher in the second half, dropping his ERA from 3.88 to 2.53 and allowing less than a runner per inning. With a bit more research however, his first half can be attibuted to some bad luck while his second half was the opposite. With an xERA of 3.38 in the first half and a 2.92 in the second, Lowe was incredibly consistent throughout the season. Again, like Myers, Lowe has a strong apt to dominate at home while being relatively good to average on the road. Considering the similarity between his home/road splits at both Boston and Los Angeles, I see it continuing with Atlanta. If he can maintain his 2008 command, Lowe should come closer to repeating his 2008 rather than reverting back to his already good 2005-2007.
Key game stats: In 20 career innings at Citizen's Bank Park, Lowe has dominated by posting a stellar ERA/WHIP/BAA of 2.25/.95/.216 wuth just 3 walks. In additoin, inhis last 4 years, Lowe is 0-3 in his last 4 opening starts with a 6.95 ERA and 34 hits in 22 innings.
Other team stats:
ATL vs RHP in 2008: .273/.421/.771
ATL away in 2008: .265/.401/.702
ATL at night: .266/.408/.748
PHI vs RHP: .255/.426/.757
PHI home: 262/.447/.788
PHI at night: .257/.445/.775
PHI went 14-4 against the Braves in 2008. 5-4 at Citizen's Bank Park.
A detailed look at Phillies starter Brett Myers:
Due to Cole Hamels's arm stiffness, the Phillies will trot out Brett Myers in 2009's first official game. Myers has thrown 23 innings in spring training with a 3.52 ERA and a 16/6 K/BB ratio. Myers turned it on in the second half last year in almost every way. He lowered his ERA from 5.84 in the first half to 3.06 in the second. His K/BB ratio went from 2 even to 3.57 making the ERA drop look legitimate. Over the spring, Myers hasn't dominated like he did in the second half but hasn't flopped like he did in the first. His xERA's from last show that his progress looks real. One major split that should have an effect on the betting line would be his home/away split difference. Since 2006, he's consistently been better at Citizen's Bank than on the road. 2008 revealed a major difference as his home ERA/WHIP/BAA was 3.01/1.17/.232 compared to 6.21/1.61/.301 on the road. I don't expect this strong of a split in 2009, but the difference is real and should be something reviewed before both starting him on your fantasy team or betting on him in the future.
Key game stat: In 2 starts totaling 8.2 innings against Atlanta in 2008, Myers allowed 10ER on 19 hits while walking 5, resulting in 2 losses, both at Citizen's Bank.
A detailed look at Derek Lowe:
A new aquisition, Derek Lowe takes over as the Atlanta ace and will start their road opener at Philadelphia. Lowe has pitched relatively well in spring training this year shown by his 3.81 ERA, 26K's, and 2 BB's in 26 total innings. As last year progressed, so did Lowe. Like Myers, he was a different pitcher in the second half, dropping his ERA from 3.88 to 2.53 and allowing less than a runner per inning. With a bit more research however, his first half can be attibuted to some bad luck while his second half was the opposite. With an xERA of 3.38 in the first half and a 2.92 in the second, Lowe was incredibly consistent throughout the season. Again, like Myers, Lowe has a strong apt to dominate at home while being relatively good to average on the road. Considering the similarity between his home/road splits at both Boston and Los Angeles, I see it continuing with Atlanta. If he can maintain his 2008 command, Lowe should come closer to repeating his 2008 rather than reverting back to his already good 2005-2007.
Key game stats: In 20 career innings at Citizen's Bank Park, Lowe has dominated by posting a stellar ERA/WHIP/BAA of 2.25/.95/.216 wuth just 3 walks. In additoin, inhis last 4 years, Lowe is 0-3 in his last 4 opening starts with a 6.95 ERA and 34 hits in 22 innings.
Other team stats:
ATL vs RHP in 2008: .273/.421/.771
ATL away in 2008: .265/.401/.702
ATL at night: .266/.408/.748
PHI vs RHP: .255/.426/.757
PHI home: 262/.447/.788
PHI at night: .257/.445/.775
PHI went 14-4 against the Braves in 2008. 5-4 at Citizen's Bank Park.
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