April 27th picks/leans

Card for tonight...looks a bit large but I mixed 3 different games with the ML and RL.

TB ML +109 --- 2 units
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units
COL ML -109 --- 2 units
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TB ML +109 --- 2 units

I've watched a couple of Baker's starts and I'm fading him until he can correct his horrid start. Teams are hitting home runs off of him like he's a slow pitch softball starter. I may play a reverse run line here as well for a unit.

WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit

Martis isn't a bad starter and I never trust Joe Blanton. The Nationals obviously have some terrible trends going against them tonight but I can't help but take the Nat's as huge underdogs going against a very questionable starter who has already been hit relatively hard by Washington this year. Blanton sported a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .297 BAA in 15 innings against the Nats in 2008. Martis has thrown well against the Phillies this year and in the past. All in all, the numbers show that this line has nice value when going for the Nats and to continue my huge reverse RL wins, I will be splitting my units among the ML and RL.

CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units

Haren and Lilly have been throwing amazing. THe Diamondbacks have really struggled against lefties and have been very quiet when Haren has taken the hill. Lilly and Haren have combined to start 7 games, only one of which has the total ended over 4 runs.

CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units

Lilly has faired extremely well against the Diamondbacks in his career and has started the season on the right foot. The DBacks aren't hitting well against lefties and even worse when Dan Haren starts. With a good team like the Cubs being such underdogs, I can't help but make a play on the better team with solid trends.

NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units

I like this line when Sabathia is throwing...it's been -200 in the past. He hasn't been an ace thus far but I trust him to keep the game close. I don't think Verlander finds his stuff again today...and therefore could be chased by the 5th. I don't trust the Yankee bullpen and will be taking the 5 inning line. I may make a 1 unit RL play here as well.

Leans:
SF/LAD under 8.5 --- solid trends here but need a look at the ump
BAL/TEX over 11 --- Harrison and Guthrie have been bad and both offenses can put up runs in bunches...wanting to look at the ump

Quite a few games I have yet to look at. I'll post plays as I go.